Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting
AbstractAn ordered probit regression model estimated using 10 years' data is used to forecast English league football match results. As well as past match results data, the significance of the match for end-of-season league outcomes, the involvement of the teams in cup competition and the geographical distance between the two teams' home towns all contribute to the forecasting model's performance. The model is used to test the weak-form efficiency of prices in the fixed-odds betting market. A strategy of selecting end-of-season bets with a favourable expected return according to the model appears capable of generating a positive return. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Agnes Bäker & Mario Mechtel & Karin Vetter, 2012. "Beating thy Neighbor: Derby Effects in German Professional Soccer," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 232(3), pages 224-246, May.
- Palomino, Frederic & Renneboog, Luc & Zhang, Chendi, 2009.
"Information salience, investor sentiment, and stock returns: The case of British soccer betting,"
Journal of Corporate Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 368-387, June.
- Palomino, F.A. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Zhang, C., 2008. "Information Salience, Investor Sentiment, and Stock Returns: The Case of British Soccer Betting," Discussion Paper 2008-044, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
- Palomino, F.A. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Zhang, C., 2008. "Information Salience, Investor Sentiment, and Stock Returns: The Case of British Soccer Betting," Discussion Paper 2008-99, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
- Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.
- Palomino, F.A. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Zhang, C., 2005.
"Stock Price Reactions to Short-Lived Public Information: The Case of Betting Odds,"
2005-62, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Palomino, F.A. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Zhang, C., 2005. "Stock Price Reactions to Short-Lived Public Information: The Case of Betting Odds," Discussion Paper 2005-016, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
- Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008.
"Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange,"
0025, University of Zurich, Center for Research in Sports Administration (CRSA), revised 2009.
- Franck, Egon & Verbeek, Erwin & Nüesch, Stephan, 2010. "Prediction accuracy of different market structures -- bookmakers versus a betting exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 448-459, July.
- Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008. "Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange," Working Papers 0096, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2009.
- Nilsson, Håkan & Andersson, Patric, 2010. "Making the seemingly impossible appear possible: Effects of conjunction fallacies in evaluations of bets on football games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 172-180, April.
- Jakobsson, Robin & Karlsson, Niklas, 2007. "Testing Market Efficiency in a Fixed Odds Betting Market," Working Papers 2007:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "The Fibonacci Strategy Revisited: Can You Really Make Money by Betting on Soccer Draws?," MPRA Paper 47649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009.
"Issues in Sports Forecasting,"
2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
- Maschke, Mario & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2010.
"Das Wettmonopol in Deutschland: Status Quo und Reformansätze,"
Kiel Policy Brief
18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Maschke, Mario & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2010. "Das Wettmonopol in Deutschland: Status Quo und Reformansätze," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32848, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Lahvicka, Jiri, 2012. "Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League," MPRA Paper 40998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Babatunde Buraimo & David Peel & Rob Simmons, 2013. "Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(4), pages 168-182, December.
- Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
- Nikolaus Beck & Mark Meyer, 2012. "Modeling team performance," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 335-356, August.
- del Corral, Julio & Prieto-Rodríguez, Juan, 2010. "Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 551-563, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.