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Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting

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Author Info
Ioannis Asimakopoulos (Edekt-Ote S.A., Athens, Greece)
John Goddard (University of Wales Swansea, UK)

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Abstract

An ordered probit regression model estimated using 10 years' data is used to forecast English league football match results. As well as past match results data, the significance of the match for end-of-season league outcomes, the involvement of the teams in cup competition and the geographical distance between the two teams' home towns all contribute to the forecasting model's performance. The model is used to test the weak-form efficiency of prices in the fixed-odds betting market. A strategy of selecting end-of-season bets with a favourable expected return according to the model appears capable of generating a positive return. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.877
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Publisher Info
Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 23 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 51-66
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:23:y:2004:i:1:p:51-66

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Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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  1. Palomino, F. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Zhang, C., 2005. "Stock price reactions to short-lived public information : the case of betting odds," Discussion Paper 16, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2008. "Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures – Bookmakers versus a Betting Exchange," Working Papers 0096, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2009. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jakobsson, Robin & Karlsson, Niklas, 2007. "Testing Market Efficiency in a Fixed Odds Betting Market," Working Papers 2007:12, Örebro University, Swedish Business School. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-10.

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