Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents
AbstractThis paper analyzes traffic bottleneck congestion when drivers randomly cause incidents that temporarily block the bottleneck. Drivers have general scheduling preferences for time spent at home and at work. They independently choose morning departure times from home to maximize expected utility without knowing whether an incident has occurred. The resulting departure time pattern may be compressed or dispersed according to whether or not the bottleneck is fully utilized throughout the departure period on days without incidents. For both the user equilibrium (UE) and the social optimum (SO) the departure pattern changes from compressed to dispersed when the probability of an incident becomes sufficiently high. The SO can be decentralized with a time-varying toll, but drivers are likely to be strictly worse off than in the UE unless they benefit from the toll revenues in some way. A numerical example is presented for illustration. Finally, the model is extended to encompass minor incidents in which the bottleneck retains some capacity during an incident.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48708.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Departure-time decisions; bottleneck model; traffic incidents; congestion; scheduling utility; morning commute; evening commute;
Other versions of this item:
- C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
- D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
- R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-08-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-TRE-2013-08-05 (Transport Economics)
- NEP-UPT-2013-08-05 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
- NEP-URE-2013-08-05 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- de Palma, André & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2013.
"Random queues and risk averse users,"
European Journal of Operational Research,
Elsevier, vol. 230(2), pages 313-320.
- R. Arnott & A. de Palma & R. Lindsey, 1997.
"Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand,"
THEMA Working Papers
97-13, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1999. "Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-548, March.
- Richard Arnott & Andre de Palma & Robin Lindsey, 1996. "Information and Time-of-Usage Decisions in the Bottleneck Model with Stochastic Capacity and Demand," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 355., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Fosgerau, Mogens & de Palma, André, 2012.
"Congestion in a city with a central bottleneck,"
Journal of Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 269-277.
- Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2011.
"The value of travel time variance,"
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-8, January.
- Richard Arnott & Andre de Palma & Robin Lindsey, 1985.
"Economics of a Bottleneck,"
636, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Dickerson, Andrew & Peirson, John & Vickerman, Roger, 2000.
"Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation,"
London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(265), pages 101-21, February.
- Andrew Dickerson & John Peirson & Roger Vickerman, 1998. "Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation," Studies in Economics 9809, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
- Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
- Henderson, J. V., 1974. "Road congestion : A reconsideration of pricing theory," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 346-365, July.
- Fosgerau, Mogens, 2010.
"On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 598-603, April.
- Fosgerau, Mogens, 2008. "On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand," MPRA Paper 11994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Schrage, Andrea, 2006. "Traffic Congestion and Accidents," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 419, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1993. "A Structural Model of Peak-Period Congestion: A Traffic Bottleneck with Elastic Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 161-79, March.
- Zhang, Xiaoning & Huang, Hai-Jun & Zhang, H.M., 2008. "Integrated daily commuting patterns and optimal road tolls and parking fees in a linear city," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 38-56, January.
- André De Palma & Robin Lindsey & Nathalie Picard, 2008. "Risk aversion, the value of information and traffic equilibrium," Working Papers hal-00349492, HAL.
- Jenelius, Erik & Mattsson, Lars-Göran & Levinson, David, 2011. "Traveler delay costs and value of time with trip chains, flexible activity scheduling and information," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 789-807, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.