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Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents

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  • Fosgerau, Mogens
  • Lindsey, Robin

Abstract

This paper analyzes traffic bottleneck congestion when drivers randomly cause incidents that temporarily block the bottleneck. Drivers have general scheduling preferences for time spent at home and at work. They independently choose morning departure times from home to maximize expected utility without knowing whether an incident has occurred. The resulting departure time pattern may be compressed or dispersed according to whether or not the bottleneck is fully utilized throughout the departure period on days without incidents. For both the user equilibrium (UE) and the social optimum (SO) the departure pattern changes from compressed to dispersed when the probability of an incident becomes sufficiently high. The SO can be decentralized with a time-varying toll, but drivers are likely to be strictly worse off than in the UE unless they benefit from the toll revenues in some way. A numerical example is presented for illustration. Finally, the model is extended to encompass minor incidents in which the bottleneck retains some capacity during an incident.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 48708.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:48708

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Keywords: Departure-time decisions; bottleneck model; traffic incidents; congestion; scheduling utility; morning commute; evening commute;

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References

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  1. Nam, Doohee & Mannering, Fred, 2000. "An exploratory hazard-based analysis of highway incident duration," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 85-102, February.
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  3. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2010. "The value of travel time variance," MPRA Paper 42272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Stefanie Peer & Erik T. Verhoef, 2013. "Equilibrium at a Bottleneck when Long-Run and Short-Run Scheduling Preferences diverge," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-028/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.

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