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Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation

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  • Andrew Dickerson

    ()

  • John Peirson

    ()

  • Roger Vickerman

    ()

Abstract

This paper develops an empirical model of the relationship between road traffic accidents and traffic flows. The analysis focuses on the accident externality which is mainly determined by the difference between the marginal and average risks. The model is estimated using a new dataset which combines hourly London traffic count data from automated vehicle recorders together with police records of road accidents. The accident-flow relationship is seen to vary considerably between different road classes and geographical areas. More importantly, even having controlled for these and other differences, the accident externality is shown to vary significantly with traffic flows. In particular, while the accident externality is typically close to zero for low to moderate traffic flows, it increases substantially at high traffic flows.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/9809.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 9809.

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Date of creation: Apr 1998
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Publication status: Published in Economica, 2000, 67, pp.101-121
Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:9809

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Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 764000
Fax: +44 (0)1227 827850
Web page: http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics/

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Keywords: Road Traffic Accidents; Traffic Flows; Accident Externalities;

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References

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  1. Jong-Il Kim & Lawrence J. Lau, 1996. "The sources of Asian Pacific economic growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 448-54, April.
  2. Jones-Lee, M W, 1990. "The Value of Transport Safety," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 39-60, Summer.
  3. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
  4. Jones-Lee, M W & Hammerton, M & Philips, P R, 1985. "The Value of Safety: Results of a National Sample Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(377), pages 49-72, March.
  5. Newbery, David M, 1987. "Road User Charges in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(390), pages 161-76, Supplemen.
  6. Peirson, John & Skinner, Ian & Vickerman, Roger, 1998. "The Microeconomic Analysis of the External Costs of Road Accidents," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(259), pages 429-40, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fosgerau, Mogens & Lindsey, Robin, 2013. "Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents," MPRA Paper 48708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Golob, Thomas F. & Recker, Wilfred W. & Alvarez, Veronica M., 2003. "A Tool to Evaluate the Safety Effects of Changes in Freeway Traffic Flow," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt1kn30323, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
  3. Golob, Thomas F. & Recker, Wilfred W. & Alvarez, Veronica, 2002. "Freeway Safety as a Function of Traffic Flow: The FITS Tool for Evaluating ATMS Operations," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt1tc5r61j, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
  4. Hyman, Geoffrey & Mayhew, Les, 2002. "Optimizing the benefits of urban road user charging," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 189-207, July.
  5. Proost, S. & Van Dender, K. & Courcelle, C. & De Borger, B. & Peirson, J. & Sharp, D. & Vickerman, R. & Gibbons, E. & O'Mahony, M. & Heaney, Q. & Van den Bergh, J. & Verhoef, E., 2002. "How large is the gap between present and efficient transport prices in Europe?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, January.
  6. Lei Zhang & David Levinson, 2005. "Investing for Reliability and Security in Transportation Networks," Working Papers 200807, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
  7. Proost, Stef & Van Dender, Kurt, 2001. "The welfare impacts of alternative policies to address atmospheric pollution in urban road transport," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 383-411, July.
  8. Verhoef, Erik T. & Rouwendal, Jan, 2004. "A behavioural model of traffic congestion: Endogenizing speed choice, traffic safety and time losses," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 408-434, November.
  9. Kwon, Youngsun & Han, Seung Hun & Nam, Changi, 2012. "Estimating the costs of political populism: Traffic violation pardons in Korea," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1449-1457.
  10. Gregory DeAngelo & Benjamin Hansen, 2014. "Life and Death in the Fast Lane: Police Enforcement and Traffic Fatalities," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 231-57, May.
  11. Noland, Robert B. & Quddus, Mohammed A., 2005. "Congestion and safety: A spatial analysis of London," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(7-9), pages 737-754.
  12. Tito Moreira & Adolfo Sachsida & Loureiro Paulo, 2004. "Traffic accidents: an econometric investigation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 18(3), pages 1-7.
  13. Daniel Albalate, 2013. "The Road against Fatalities: Infrastructure Spending vs. Regulation?," ERSA conference papers ersa13p221, European Regional Science Association.
  14. Schrage, Andrea, 2006. "Traffic Congestion and Accidents," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 419, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  15. Golob, Thomas F. & Recker, Wilfred W., 2001. "Relationships Among Urban Freeway Accidents, Traffic Flow, Weather and Lighting Conditions," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2fh4x5hp, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
  16. Steimetz, Seiji S.C., 2008. "Defensive driving and the external costs of accidents and travel delays," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 703-724, November.
  17. Erik T. Verhoef & Jan Rouwendal, 2001. "A Structural Model of Traffic Congestion," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-026/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 17 Oct 2003.
  18. Pål Andreas Pedersen, 2001. "A Game Theoretical Approach to Road Safety," Studies in Economics 0105, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  19. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:18:y:2004:i:3:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS

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