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On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand

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  • Fosgerau, Mogens

Abstract

This paper investigates the distribution of delays during a repeatedly occurring demand peak in a congested facility with random capacity and demand, such as an airport or an urban road. Congestion is described in the form of a dynamic queue using the Vickrey bottleneck model and assuming Nash equilibrium in arrival times. The paper shows that the expected delay and the variance of delay vary differently over time during the peak and must hence be considered separately. The paper gives some characterization of how the expected delay and the variance of delay are related, which explain the looping phenomenon that has now been observed a number of times. Empirical illustration is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Fosgerau, Mogens, 2010. "On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 598-603, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:4:p:598-603
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2011. "The value of travel time variance," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-8, January.
    2. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1999. "Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-548, March.
    3. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2008. "Congestion costs in bottleneck equilibrium with stochastic capacity and demand," MPRA Paper 10040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1993. "A Structural Model of Peak-Period Congestion: A Traffic Bottleneck with Elastic Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 161-179, March.
    5. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010. "The value of reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
    6. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-260, May.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bottleneck model Random capacity Congestion Nash equilibrium Loop;

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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