Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Valuations of travel time variability in scheduling versus mean-variance models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Börjesson, Maria

    ()
    (Royal Institute of Technology (KTH))

  • Eliasson, Jonas

    (Royal Institute of Technology (KTH))

  • Franklin, Joel

    (Royal Institute of Technology (KTH))

Abstract

The standard method of estimating the value of travel time variability for use in policy appraisal is to estimate the parameters of a reduced-form utility function, where some measure of travel time variability (such as the standard deviation) is included. A problem with this approach is that the obtained valuation will in general depend on the standardized travel time distribution, and hence cannot be transferred from one context to another. A recently suggested remedy of this problem has been to estimate a scheduling model, which in theory is transferrable, and use the implied reduced-form to derive valuations for use in appraisal. In this paper we estimate both a scheduling model and the implied reduced-form model, using stated choice data. The valuation of travel time variability implied by the scheduling model turns out to be substantially smaller than what is obtained from a reduced-form model estimated on the same sample. The results suggest that the scheduling model does not capture all of the disutility arising from travel time variability. Hence, although it can be shown that scheduling and reduced-form models are “theoretically equivalent”, that hypothesized equivalence is not reflected in the empirical evidence. We speculate that the derivation of reduced-form models from an underlying scheduling model omits two essential features: first, the notion of an exogenously fixed “preferred arrival time” neglects the fact that most activities can be rescheduled given full information about the travel times in advance, and second, disutility may be derived from uncertainty as such, in the form of anxiety, decisions costs or costs for having contingency plans. We also report our estimates of the valuation of travel time variability for public transit trips, for use in applied appraisal.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.transportportal.se/SWoPEc/CTS2012-2.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI) in its series Working papers in Transport Economics with number 2012:2.

as in new window
Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 02 Feb 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2012_002

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Centrum för Transportstudier (CTS), Teknikringen 10, 100 44 Stockholm, Sweden
Web page: http://www.kth.se/abe/om_skolan/organisation/centra/cts

Related research

Keywords: Travel time variability; reliability; delays; scheduling models;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Noland, Robert B. & Small, Kenneth A. & Koskenoja, Pia Maria & Chu, Xuehao, 1997. "Simulating Travel Reliability," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt30w220k0, University of California Transportation Center.
  2. Tseng, Yin-Yen & Verhoef, Erik T., 2008. "Value of time by time of day: A stated-preference study," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 607-618, August.
  3. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2010. "The value of travel time variance," MPRA Paper 42272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010. "The value of reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
  5. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-79, June.
  6. Jenelius, Erik & Mattsson, Lars-Göran & Levinson, David, 2011. "Traveler delay costs and value of time with trip chains, flexible activity scheduling and information," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 789-807, June.
  7. Batley, Richard, 2007. "Marginal valuations of travel time and scheduling, and the reliability premium," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 387-408, July.
  8. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
  9. Snickars, Folke & Weibull, Jorgen W., 1977. "A minimum information principle : Theory and practice," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1-2), pages 137-168, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Wang, Qian & Sundberg, Marcus & Karlström, Anders, 2013. "On the other half of the story: allowing for discrete penalties for excessive travel times in scheduling models," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  2. Jenelius, Erik, 2012. "The value of travel time variability with trip chains, flexible scheduling and correlated travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 762-780.
  3. Stefanie Peer & Erik T. Verhoef, 2013. "Equilibrium at a Bottleneck when Long-Run and Short-Run Scheduling Preferences diverge," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-028/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Fosgerau, Mogens & Lindsey, Robin, 2013. "Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents," MPRA Paper 48708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Wang, Qian & Sundberg, Marcus & Karlström, Anders, 2013. "Scheduling choices under rank dependent utility maximization," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:16, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  6. Xiao, Yu & Fukuda, Daisuke, 2013. "On the cost of misperceived travel time variability," MPRA Paper 49737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Benezech, Vincent & Coulombel, Nicolas, 2013. "The value of service reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-15.
  8. Vincent Benezech & Nicolas Coulombel, 2013. "The value of service reliability," Post-Print hal-00925940, HAL.
  9. Stefanie Peer & Erik Verhoef & Jasper Knockaert & Paul Koster & Yin-Yen Tseng, 2011. "Long-Run vs. Short-Run Perspectives on Consumer Scheduling: Evidence from a Revealed-Preference Experiment among Peak-Hour Road Commuters," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-181/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 16 May 2012.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2012_002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mats Berggren).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.