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Valuing travel time variability: Characteristics of the travel time distribution on an urban road

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  • Fosgerau, Mogens
  • Fukuda, Daisuke

Abstract

Fosgerau and Karlstrom [The value of reliability. Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 43 (8–9), pp. 813–820, 2010] presented a derivation of the value of travel time variability (VTTV) with a number of desirable properties. This definition of the VTTV depends on certain properties of the distribution of random travel times that require empirical verification. This paper therefore provides a detailed empirical investigation of the distribution of travel times on an urban road. Applying a range of nonparametric statistical techniques to data giving minute-by-minute travel times for a congested urban road over a period of five months, we show that the standardized travel time is roughly independent of the time of day as required by the theory. Except for the extreme right tail, a stable distribution seems to fit the data well. The travel time distributions on consecutive links seem to share a common stability parameter such that the travel time distribution for a sequence of links is also a stable distribution. The parameters of the travel time distribution for a sequence of links can then be derived analytically from the link level distributions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 24330.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24330

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Keywords: value of travel time variability; travel time distribution; nonparametrics; stable distributions;

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References

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  1. Robert B. Noland & John W. Polak, 2002. "Travel time variability: A review of theoretical and empirical issues," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 39-54, January.
  2. Noland, R.B. & Small, K.A. & Koskenoja, P.M. & Chu, X., 1996. "Simulating Travel Reliability," Papers, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences 95-96-7, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  3. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2008. "On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand," MPRA Paper 11994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2010. "The value of travel time variance," MPRA Paper 42272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Lam, Terence C. & Small, Kenneth A., 0. "The value of time and reliability: measurement from a value pricing experiment," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 231-251, April.
  6. Ichimura, Tsuyoshi & Fukuda, Daisuke, 2010. "A fast algorithm for computing least-squares cross-validations for nonparametric conditional kernel density functions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3404-3410, December.
  7. Brownstone, David & Small, Kenneth A., 2005. "Valuing time and reliability: assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 279-293, May.
  8. Peter Hall & Jeff Racine & Qi Li, 2004. "Cross-Validation and the Estimation of Conditional Probability Densities," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 1015-1026, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Xiao, Yu & Fukuda, Daisuke, 2013. "On the cost of misperceived travel time variability," MPRA Paper 49737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Jenelius, Erik, 2012. "The value of travel time variability with trip chains, flexible scheduling and correlated travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 762-780.
  3. Engelson, Leonid & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2011. "Additive measures of travel time variability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1560-1571.
  4. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid & Franklin, Joel P., 2014. "Commuting for meetings," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 104-113.

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