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The value of reliability

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Author Info
Fosgerau, Mogens
Karlström, Anders

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Abstract

We derive the value of reliability in the scheduling of an activity of random duration, such as travel under congested conditions. We show that the minimal expected cost is linear in the mean and standard deviation of duration, regardless of the form of the standardized distribution of durations. This insight provides a unification of the scheduling model and models that include the standard deviation of duration directly as an argument in the cost or utility function. The results generalize approximately to the case where the mean and standard deviation of duration depend on the starting time. Empirical illustration is provided.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5733/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5733.

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Date of creation: 13 Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5733

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Related research
Keywords: Welfare; Random duration; Time; Scheduling; Reliability; Variability;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D0 - Microeconomics - - General
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kenneth A. Small & Clifford Winston & Jia Yan, 2005. "Uncovering the Distribution of Motorists' Preferences for Travel Time and Reliability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1367-1382, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. DeSerpa, A C, 1971. "A Theory of the Economics of Time," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(324), pages 828-46, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1999. "Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-548, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Jan K. Brueckner, 2004. "Network Structure and Airline Scheduling," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(2), pages 291-312, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Anderson, James E & Kraus, Marvin, 1981. "Quality of Service and the Demand for Air Travel," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(4), pages 533-40, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2007. "Using nonparametrics to specify a model to measure the value of travel time," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 842-856, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1993. "A Structural Model of Peak-Period Congestion: A Traffic Bottleneck with Elastic Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 161-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Sandholm, William H, 2002. "Evolutionary Implementation and Congestion Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(3), pages 667-89, July.
  9. Liao, Hung-Chang & Tsai, Chih-Hung & Su, Chao-Ton, 2000. "An inventory model with deteriorating items under inflation when a delay in payment is permissible," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 207-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-79, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Amitrajeet Batabyal, 2007. "A probabilistic analysis of a scheduling problem in the economics of tourism," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 12(4), pages 1-7. [Downloadable!]
  13. William H. Sandholm, 2005. "Negative Externalities and Evolutionary Implementation," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 72(3), pages 885-915, 07. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Brueckner, Jan K., 1987. "The structure of urban equilibria: A unified treatment of the muth-mills model," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: E. S. Mills (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 821-845 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Daniel, Joseph I, 1995. "Congestion Pricing and Capacity of Large Hub Airports: A Bottleneck Model with Stochastic Queues," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(2), pages 327-70, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2008. "On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand," MPRA Paper 11994, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2008. "Congestion costs in bottleneck equilibrium with stochastic capacity and demand," MPRA Paper 10040, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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