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On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability

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  • Börjesson, Maria
  • Eliasson, Jonas

Abstract

We investigate how passengers on long-distance trains value unexpected delays relative to scheduled travel time and travel cost. For scheduled services with high reliability and long headways, the value of delays is most commonly assumed to be proportional to the average delay. By exploring how the valuation of train delays depends on delay risk and delay length, using three different stated choice data sets, we find that the "average delay" approach does not hold: the disutility increases slower than linearly in the delay risk. This means that using the average delay as a performance indicator, a guide for operations planning or for investment appraisal will underestimate the value of small risks of long delays relative to large risks for short delays. It also means that estimated valuations of "average delay" will depend on the delay risk level: valuations will be higher the lower the risk levels in the study are.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

Volume (Year): 45 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
Pages: 171-184

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Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:3:p:171-184

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Related research

Keywords: Reliability Value of delay time Travel time variability Train delay;

References

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  1. Tseng, Yin-Yen & Verhoef, Erik T., 2008. "Value of time by time of day: A stated-preference study," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(7-8), pages 607-618, August.
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  5. Nathanail, Eftihia, 2008. "Measuring the quality of service for passengers on the hellenic railways," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 48-66, January.
  6. Andre Palma & Moshe Ben-Akiva & David Brownstone & Charles Holt & Thierry Magnac & Daniel McFadden & Peter Moffatt & Nathalie Picard & Kenneth Train & Peter Wakker & Joan Walker, 2008. "Risk, uncertainty and discrete choice models," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 269-285, December.
    • André de Palma & Moshe Ben-Akiva & David Brownstone & Charles Holt & Thierry Magnac & Daniel McFadden & Peter Moffatt & Nathalie Picard & Kenneth Train & Peter Wakker & Joan Walker, 2008. "Risk, Uncertainty and Discrete Choice Models," THEMA Working Papers 2008-02, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  7. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
  8. Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2010. "The value of travel time variance," MPRA Paper 42272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-79, June.
  10. Brownstone, David & Small, Kenneth A., 2005. "Valuing time and reliability: assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 279-293, May.
  11. Rietveld, P. & Bruinsma, F. R. & van Vuuren, D. J., 2001. "Coping with unreliability in public transport chains: A case study for Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 539-559, July.
  12. Abrantes, Pedro A.L. & Wardman, Mark R., 2011. "Meta-analysis of UK values of travel time: An update," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-17, January.
  13. David A. Hensher & Paola Prioni, 2002. "A Service Quality Index for Area-wide Contract Performance Assessment," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 93-113, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bergström, Anna & Krüger, Niclas A., 2013. "Modeling passenger train delay distributions: evidence and implications," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:3, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  2. Paul Koster & Eric Pels & Erik Verhoef, 2013. "The User Costs of Air Travel Delay Variability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-056/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Agostino, Deborah & Steenhuisen, Bauke & Arnaboldi, Michela & de Bruijn, Hans, 2014. "PMS development in local public transport: Comparing Milan and Amsterdam," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 26-32.
  4. Jenelius, Erik, 2012. "The value of travel time variability with trip chains, flexible scheduling and correlated travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 762-780.
  5. Paul Koster & Eric Pels & Erik Verhoef, 2013. "The User Costs of Air Travel Delay Variability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-056/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Jenelius, Erik & Mattsson, Lars-Göran & Levinson, David, 2011. "Traveler delay costs and value of time with trip chains, flexible activity scheduling and information," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 789-807, June.

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