Modeling Passenger Train Delay Distributions - Evidence and Implications
AbstractThis paper addresses the lack of reliability within the Swedish rail network by identifying passenger train delay distributions. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data provided by the Swedish Transport Administration, covering all train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009. The paper identifies vulnerabilities by size, space and time in the network. Our results show that the delay distribution seems to be plagued by low probability high impact events. A major share of all delay time is associated with the tail of the delay distribution, indicating that extreme delays cannot be neglected when prioritizing between measures improving rail infrastructure. Delays are not only concentrated in size, but also concentrated in space and time and seem to follow a precise power law with respect to days and an exponential distribution with regard to stations. Moreover, we also examine the link between capacity usage and expected delay over different time scales.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Karlstad University in its series Karlstad University Working Papers in Economics with number 10.
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 04 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Dept of Economics, Karlstad University, Universitetsgatan 1, SE 651 88 Karlstad, Sweden
Phone: 054 - 700 13 56
Fax: 054 - 700 14 97
Web page: http://www.kau.se/node/12323
More information through EDIRC
Delay; Reliability; Passenger trains; Delay distribution; Value of time; Cost-benefit analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Bergström, Anna & Krüger, Niclas A., 2013. "Modeling passenger train delay distributions: evidence and implications," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:3, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
- H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
- R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-11-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-EUR-2013-11-09 (Microeconomic European Issues)
- NEP-REG-2013-11-09 (Regulation)
- NEP-TRE-2013-11-09 (Transport Economics)
- NEP-URE-2013-11-09 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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