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Modeling Passenger Train Delay Distributions - Evidence and Implications

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Author Info

  • Bergström, Anna

    ()
    (Dept. of Economics)

  • Krüger, Niclas

    ()
    (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper addresses the lack of reliability within the Swedish rail network by identifying passenger train delay distributions. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data provided by the Swedish Transport Administration, covering all train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009. The paper identifies vulnerabilities by size, space and time in the network. Our results show that the delay distribution seems to be plagued by low probability high impact events. A major share of all delay time is associated with the tail of the delay distribution, indicating that extreme delays cannot be neglected when prioritizing between measures improving rail infrastructure. Delays are not only concentrated in size, but also concentrated in space and time and seem to follow a precise power law with respect to days and an exponential distribution with regard to stations. Moreover, we also examine the link between capacity usage and expected delay over different time scales.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Karlstad University in its series Karlstad University Working Papers in Economics with number 10.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 04 Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:kaunek:0010

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Dept of Economics, Karlstad University, Universitetsgatan 1, SE 651 88 Karlstad, Sweden
Phone: 054 - 700 13 56
Fax: 054 - 700 14 97
Web page: http://www.kau.se/node/12323
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Related research

Keywords: Delay; Reliability; Passenger trains; Delay distribution; Value of time; Cost-benefit analysis;

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  1. F.R. Bruinsma & P. Rietveld & D.J. van Vuuren, 1999. "Unreliability in Public Transport Chains," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 98-130/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Stefanie Peer & Carl Koopmans & Erik T. Verhoef, 2010. "Predicting Travel Time Variability for Cost-Benefit Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-071/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
  4. Paulley, Neil & Balcombe, Richard & Mackett, Roger & Titheridge, Helena & Preston, John & Wardman, Mark & Shires, Jeremy & White, Peter, 2006. "The demand for public transport: The effects of fares, quality of service, income and car ownership," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 295-306, July.
  5. Briggs, Keith & Beck, Christian, 2007. "Modelling train delays with q-exponential functions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 378(2), pages 498-504.
  6. Berdica, Katja, 2002. "An introduction to road vulnerability: what has been done, is done and should be done," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 117-127, April.
  7. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas, 2011. "On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 171-184, March.
  8. Rietveld, P. & Bruinsma, F.R. & Vuuren, D.J. van, 1999. "Coping with unreliability in public transport chains," Serie Research Memoranda 0031, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
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