Simulating travel reliability
AbstractWe present a simulation model designed to determine the impact on congestion of policies for dealing with travel time uncertainty. The model combines a supply side model of congestion delay with a discrete choice econometric demand model that predicts scheduling choices for morning commute trips. The supply model describes congestion technology and exogenously specifies the probability, severity, and duration of non-recurrent events. From these, given traffic volumes, a distribution of travel times is generated, from which a mean, a standard deviation, and a probability of arriving late are calculated. The demand model uses these outputs from the supply model as independent variables and choices are forecast using sample enumeration and a synthetic sample of work start times and free flow travel times. The process is iterated until a stable congestion pattern is achieved. We report on the components of expected cost and the average travel delay for selected simulations.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.
Volume (Year): 28 (1998)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/regec
Other versions of this item:
- Noland, R.B. & Small, K.A. & Koskenoja, P.M. & Chu, X., 1996. "Simulating Travel Reliability," Papers 95-96-7, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Noland, Robert B. & Small, Kenneth A. & Koskenoja, Pia Maria & Chu, Xuehao, 1997. "Simulating Travel Reliability," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt30w220k0, University of California Transportation Center.
- C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
- R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
- R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion
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- Chu, Xeuhao, 1993. "Trip Scheduling and Economic Analysis of Transportation Policies," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt36p986pv, University of California Transportation Center.
- Small, K. & Noland, R. & Koskenoja, P., 1995. "Socio-economic Attributes And Impacts Of Travel Reliability: A Stated Preference Approach," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt82n2w53k, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
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- Koskenoja, Pia Maria K., 1996. "The Effect of Unreliable Commuting Time on Commuter Preferences," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0rj9z9cv, University of California Transportation Center.
- Skabardonis, Alexander & Noeimi, Hisham & Petty, Karl & Rydzewski, Dan & Varaiya, Pravin & Al-deek, Haitham, 1995. "Freeway Service Patrol Evaluation," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt36r1t2m2, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
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636, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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