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Simulating travel reliability

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  • Noland, Robert B.
  • Small, Kenneth A.
  • Koskenoja, Pia Maria
  • Chu, Xuehao

Abstract

We present a simulation model designed to determine the impact on congestion of policies for dealing with travel time uncertainty. The model combines a supply side model of congestion delay with a discrete choice econometric demand model that predicts scheduling choices for morning commute trips. The supply model describes congestion technology and exogenously specifies the probability, severity, and duration of non-recurrent events. From these, given traffic volumes, a distribution of travel times is generated, from which a mean, a standard deviation, and a probability of arriving late are calculated. The demand model uses these outputs from the supply model as independent variables and choices are forecast using sample enumeration and a synthetic sample of work start times and free flow travel times. The process is iterated until a stable congestion pattern is achieved. We report on the components of expected cost and the average travel delay for selected simulations.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 28 (1998)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 535-564

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Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:28:y:1998:i:5:p:535-564

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  1. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1990. "Economics of a bottleneck," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 111-130, January.
  2. Chu, Xeuhao, 1993. "Trip Scheduling and Economic Analysis of Transportation Policies," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt36p986pv, University of California Transportation Center.
  3. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-79, June.
  4. Koskenoja, Pia Maria K., 1996. "The Effect of Unreliable Commuting Time on Commuter Preferences," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5cq3632j, University of California Transportation Center.
  5. Henderson, J. Vernon, 1981. "The economics of staggered work hours," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 349-364, May.
  6. Marvin Kraus, 1981. "Indivisibilities, Economies of Scale, and Optimal Subsidy Policy for Freeways," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(1), pages 115-121.
  7. Small, K. & Noland, R. & Koskenoja, P., 1995. "Socio-economic Attributes And Impacts Of Travel Reliability: A Stated Preference Approach," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt82n2w53k, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
  8. Koskenoja, Pia Maria K., 1996. "The Effect of Unreliable Commuting Time on Commuter Preferences," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0rj9z9cv, University of California Transportation Center.
  9. Skabardonis, Alexander & Noeimi, Hisham & Petty, Karl & Rydzewski, Dan & Varaiya, Pravin & Al-deek, Haitham, 1995. "Freeway Service Patrol Evaluation," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt36r1t2m2, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
  10. Chu Xuehao, 1995. "Endogenous Trip Scheduling: The Henderson Approach Reformulated and Compared with the Vickrey Approach," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 324-343, May.
  11. Noland, Robert B., 1997. "Commuter Responses to Travel Time Uncertainty under Congested Conditions: Expected Costs and the Provision of Information," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 377-406, May.
  12. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
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