On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand
AbstractThis paper investigates the distribution of delays during a repeatedly occurring demand peak in a congested facility with random capacity and demand, such as an airport or an urban road. Congestion is described in the form of a dynamic queue using the Vickrey bottleneck model and assuming Nash equilibrium in arrival times. The paper shows that the expected delay and the variance of delay vary differently over time during the peak and must hence be considered separately. The paper gives some characterization of how the expected delay and the variance of delay are related, which explain the looping phenomenon that has now been observed a number of times. Empirical illustration is provided.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11994.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Bottleneck model; Random capacity; Congestion; Nash Equilibrium; Loop;
Other versions of this item:
- Fosgerau, Mogens, 2010. "On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 598-603, April.
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
- R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
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- Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1999.
"Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand,"
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- Richard Arnott & Andre de Palma & Robin Lindsey, 1996. "Information and Time-of-Usage Decisions in the Bottleneck Model with Stochastic Capacity and Demand," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 355., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
- Fosgerau, Mogens & Engelson, Leonid, 2011.
"The value of travel time variance,"
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- Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010.
"The value of reliability,"
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
- Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1993. "A Structural Model of Peak-Period Congestion: A Traffic Bottleneck with Elastic Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 161-79, March.
- Fosgerau, Mogens, 2008. "Congestion costs in bottleneck equilibrium with stochastic capacity and demand," MPRA Paper 10040, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Paul Koster & Eric Kroes & Erik T. Verhoef, 2010.
"Travel Time Variability and Airport Accessibility,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
10-061/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- repec:dgr:uvatin:2011181 is not listed on IDEAS
- Mogens Fosgerau & Kurt van Dender, 2010.
"Road Pricing with Complication,"
OECD/ITF Joint Transport Research Centre Discussion Papers
2010/2, OECD Publishing.
- Fosgerau, Mogens & Lindsey, Robin, 2013.
"Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 764-782.
- Fosgerau, Mogens & Fukuda, Daisuke, 2010. "Valuing travel time variability: Characteristics of the travel time distribution on an urban road," MPRA Paper 24330, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- André De Palma & Mogens Fosgerau, 2010. "Dynamic and Static congestion models: A review," Working Papers hal-00539166, HAL.
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