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On the relation between the mean and variance of delay in dynamic queues with random capacity and demand

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Author Info
Fosgerau, Mogens

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Abstract

This paper investigates the distribution of delays during a repeatedly occurring demand peak in a congested facility with random capacity and demand, such as an airport or an urban road. Congestion is described in the form of a dynamic queue using the Vickrey bottleneck model and assuming Nash equilibrium in arrival times. The paper shows that the expected delay and the variance of delay vary differently over time during the peak and must hence be considered separately. The paper gives some characterization of how the expected delay and the variance of delay are related, which explain the looping phenomenon that has now been observed a number of times. Empirical illustration is provided.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/11994/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 11994.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:11994

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Related research
Keywords: Bottleneck model; Random capacity; Congestion; Nash Equilibrium; Loop;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
R41 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Transportation Systems - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion

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  1. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1999. "Information and time-of-usage decisions in the bottleneck model with stochastic capacity and demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 525-548, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2007. "The value of reliability," MPRA Paper 5733, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fosgerau, Mogens & Jensen, Henning F., 2008. "A note on the existence of Nash equilibrium in the stochastic bottleneck model," MPRA Paper 12012, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fosgerau, Mogens, 2008. "Congestion costs in bottleneck equilibrium with stochastic capacity and demand," MPRA Paper 10040, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1993. "A Structural Model of Peak-Period Congestion: A Traffic Bottleneck with Elastic Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 161-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-1.


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