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Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation

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  • Andrew Dickerson
  • John Peirson
  • Roger Vickerman

Abstract

This paper develops an empirical model of the relationship between road traffic accidents and traffic flows. The analysis focuses on the accident externality, which is determined mainly by the difference between the marginal and average risks. The model is estimated using a new data‐set which combines hourly London traffic count data from automated vehicle recorders together with police records of road accidents. The accident‐flow relationship is seen to vary considerably between different road classes and geographical areas. More importantly, even having controlled for these and other differences, the accident externality is shown to vary significantly with traffic flows. In particular, while the accident externality is typically close to zero for low to moderate traffic flows, it increases substantially at high traffic flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Dickerson & John Peirson & Roger Vickerman, 2000. "Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(265), pages 101-121, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:67:y:2000:i:265:p:101-121
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0335.00198
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cheng Keat Tang & Jos van Ommeren, 2022. "Accident externality of driving: evidence from the London Congestion Charge [Pounds that kill: the external costs of vehicle weight]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 547-580.
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    6. Golob, Thomas F. & Recker, Wilfred W., 2001. "Relationships Among Urban Freeway Accidents, Traffic Flow, Weather and Lighting Conditions," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt2fh4x5hp, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    7. Fosgerau, Mogens & Lindsey, Robin, 2013. "Trip-timing decisions with traffic incidents," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 764-782.
    8. Imran Ashraf & Soojung Hur & Muhammad Shafiq & Yongwan Park, 2019. "Catastrophic factors involved in road accidents: Underlying causes and descriptive analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(10), pages 1-29, October.
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    10. Schrage, Andrea, 2006. "Traffic Congestion and Accidents," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 419, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    11. Daniel Albalate & Xavier Fageda, 2019. "Congestion, Road Safety, and the Effectiveness of Public Policies in Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-21, September.
    12. Golob, Thomas F. & Recker, Wilfred W. & Alvarez, Veronica, 2002. "Freeway Safety as a Function of Traffic Flow: The FITS Tool for Evaluating ATMS Operations," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt1tc5r61j, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    13. Pål Andreas Pedersen, 2001. "A Game Theoretical Approach to Road Safety," Studies in Economics 0105, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    14. Ilias-Nikiforos Pasidis, 2015. "Congestion by accident? Traffic and accidents in England," ERSA conference papers ersa15p1321, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Noland, Robert B. & Quddus, Mohammed A., 2005. "Congestion and safety: A spatial analysis of London," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(7-9), pages 737-754.
    16. Daniel Albalate, 2013. "The Road against Fatalities: Infrastructure Spending vs. Regulation?," ERSA conference papers ersa13p221, European Regional Science Association.
    17. Lei Zhang & David Levinson, 2005. "Investing for Reliability and Security in Transportation Networks," Working Papers 200807, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
    18. Golob, Thomas F. & Recker, Wilfred W., 2003. "Relationships Among Urban Freeway Accidents, Traffic Flow, Weather, and Lighting Conditions," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt61v6d9kz, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    19. Golob, Thomas F. & Recker, Wilfred W. & Alvarez, Veronica M., 2003. "A Tool to Evaluate the Safety Effects of Changes in Freeway Traffic Flow," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt1kn30323, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    20. Tito Moreira & Adolfo Sachsida & Loureiro Paulo, 2004. "Traffic accidents: an econometric investigation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 18(3), pages 1-7.
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    22. Piera Bello, 2020. "The environmental cost and the accident externality of driving: Evidence from the Swiss franc’s appreciation," IdEP Economic Papers 2001, USI Università della Svizzera italiana.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General

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