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Long maturity forward rates of major currencies are stationary

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Author Info

  • Zsolt Darvas
  • Zoltán Schepp

    ()
    (University of Pécs)

Abstract

Using eight unit root tests and a stationarity test and three decades of monthly data for the currencies between the US, Germany, UK and Switzerland, we find that, while spot exchange rates are non-stationary, long maturity forward rates are stationary.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest in its series Working Papers with number 0603.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: 14 Feb 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:0603

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Keywords: forward exchange rate; unit root tests;

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References

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  1. Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  3. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Perron, P. & Ng, S., 1994. "Useful Modifications to Some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and Their Local Asymptotic Properties," Cahiers de recherche 9427, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates: Implications for Exchange Rates and the Forward Premium Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 11840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  7. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  8. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zsolt Darvas & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2010. "The Threat of 'Currency Wars': a European Perspective," Working Papers 1006, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  2. Zsolt Darvas, 2010. "The Case for Reforming Euro Area Entry Criteria," Working Papers 1003, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  3. Zsolt Darvas, 2010. "Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe," Working Papers 1005, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest, revised 09 Mar 2011.
  4. Zsolt Darvas & G�bor Rappai & Zolt�n Schepp, 2006. "Uncovering Yield Parity: A new insight into the UIP puzzle through the stationarity of long maturity forward rates," DNB Working Papers 098, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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