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The threat of 'currency wars': A European perspective

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  • Zsolt Darvas

    ()
    (Institute of Economics Hungarian Academy of Sciences)

  • Jean Pisani-Ferry

    ()
    (Bruegel, Brussels)

Abstract

The 'currency war', as it has become known, has three aspects: 1) the inflexible pegs of undervalued currencies; 2) recent attempts by floating exchange-rate countries to resist currency appreciation; 3) quantitative easing. Europe should primarily be concerned about the first issue, which relates to the renewed debate about the international monetary system. The attempts of floating exchange-rate countries to resist currency appreciation are generally justified while China retains a peg. Quantitative easing cannot be deemed a 'beggar-thy-neighbour' policy as long as the Fed's policy is geared towards price stability. Current US inflationary expectations are at historically low levels. Central banks should come to an agreement about the definition of price stability at a time of deflationary pressures. The euro's exchange rate has not been greatly impacted by the recent currency war; the euro continues to be overvalued, but less than before.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences in its series IEHAS Discussion Papers with number 1102.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1102

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Keywords: currency war; quantitative easing; currency intervention; international monetary system;

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References

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  1. Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Leveraged carry trade portfolios," Working Papers 0802, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest, revised 18 Jun 2008.
  2. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & György Szapáry, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," Working Papers 0504, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  3. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltan Schepp, 2009. "Long maturity forward rates of major currencies are stationary," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 1175-1181.
  4. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Zsolt Darvas, 2007. "Estimation Bias and Inference in Overlapping Autoregressions: Implications for the Target Zone Literature," Working Papers 0701, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
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Cited by:
  1. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Empirica, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 363-390, May.
  2. Judit Karsai, 2012. "Development of the Hungarian Venture Capital and Private Equity Industry over the Past Two Decades," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1201, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  3. Ignazio Angeloni & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benjamin Carton & Christophe Destais & Zsolt Darvas & Jean Pisani-Ferry & André Sapir & Shahin Vallée, . "Global currencies for tomorrow: a European perspective," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 592, December.
  4. Zsombor Z. Meder & Andras Simonovits & Janos Vincze, 2012. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion: Social Preferences and Bounded Rationality," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1203, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.

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