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Beyond the crisis: prospects for emerging Europe

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  • Zsolt Darvas

Abstract

This working paper by Zsolt Darvas assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of CEES countries, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which starting their economic transition about twenty years ago. Evidence shows that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms. A version of this publication was also released as an article for Comparative Economic Studies (2011) 53, 261â??290; published online 28 April 2011

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bruegel in its series Working Papers with number 466.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:bre:wpaper:466

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  1. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & Gyorgy Szapary, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 261-298 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltán Schepp, 2006. "Long maturity forward rates of major currencies are stationary," Working Papers 0603, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  3. Durlauf,S.N. & Johnson,P.A. & Temple,J.R.W., 2004. "Growth econometrics," Working papers 18, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    • Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  4. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," Working Papers 0801, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  5. Zsolt Darvas & György Szapáry, 2006. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Enlarged EU," Working Papers 0604, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  6. Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Leveraged carry trade portfolios," Working Papers 0802, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest, revised 18 Jun 2008.
  7. Zsolt Darvas, 2007. "Estimation Bias and Inference in Overlapping Autoregressions: Implications for the Target Zone Literature," Working Papers 0701, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  8. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Pavle Petrovic & Michael A Landesmann & Vladimir Gligorov & Daniel Daianu & Torbjörn Becker & Zsolt Darvas & André Sapir & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, . "Whither growth in central and eastern Europe? Policy lessons for an integrated Europe," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 453, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 1103, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  2. Zsombor Z. Meder & Andras Simonovits & Janos Vincze, 2012. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion: Social Preferences and Bounded Rationality," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1203, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  3. Kosta Josifidis & Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Ivančev, 2012. "Heterogeneity of Growth in the West Balkans and Emerging Europe: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 157-183, May.
  4. Judit Karsai, 2012. "Development of the Hungarian Venture Capital and Private Equity Industry over the Past Two Decades," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1201, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.

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