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The euro area's tightrope walk: debt and competitiveness in Italy and Spain

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  • Zsolt Darvas

    (Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Bruegel, Brussels, Belgium and Corvinus University Budapest)

Abstract

Competitiveness adjustment in struggling southern euro-area members requires persistently lower inflation than in major trading partners, but low inflation worsens public debt sustainability. When average euro-area inflation undershoots the two percent target, the conflict between intra-euro relative price adjustment and debt sustainability is more severe. In our baseline scenario, the projected public debt ratio reduction in Italy and Spain is too slow and does not meet the European fiscal rule. Debt projections are very sensitive to underlying assumptions and even small negative deviations from GDP growth, inflation and budget surplus assumptions can easily result in a runaway debt trajectory. The case for a greater than five percent of GDP primary budget surplus is very weak. Beyond vitally important structural reforms, the top priority is to ensure that euro-area inflation does not undershoot the two percent target, which requires national policy actions and more accommodative monetary policy. The latter would weaken the euro exchange rate, thereby facilitating further intra-euro adjustment. More effective policies are needed to foster growth. But if all else fails, the European Central Bank's Outright Monetary Transactions could reduce borrowing costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "The euro area's tightrope walk: debt and competitiveness in Italy and Spain," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1337, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1337
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zsolt Darvas, 2010. "The case for reforming euro area entry criteria," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 32(2), pages 195-219, December.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "A Decade of Debt," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Miguel Fuentes D. & Claudio E. Raddatz & Carmen M. Reinhart (ed.),Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 18, chapter 4, pages 97-135, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 53(2), pages 261-290, June.
    4. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 1103, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    5. Zsolt Darvas, 2010. "The Impact of the Crisis on Budget Policy in Central and Eastern Europe," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 1-42.
    6. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Silvia Merler, 2012. "The simple macroeconomics of North and South in EMU," Working Papers 740, Bruegel.
    7. Guntram B. Wolff, 2012. "Arithmetic is absolute- euro area adjustment," Policy Contributions 724, Bruegel.
    8. Zsolt Darvas & Jean Pisani-Ferry & Guntram B. Wolff, 2013. "Europe's growth problem (and what to do about it)," Policy Briefs 776, Bruegel.
    9. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Compositional effects on productivity, labour cost and export adjustments," Policy Contributions 730, Bruegel.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Mastromatteo & Sergio Rossi, 2015. "The economics of deflation in the euro area: a critique of fiscal austerity," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 336-350, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    competitiveness adjustment; debt sustainability; euro area; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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