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Beyond the Crisis: Prospects for Emerging Europe

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  • Zsolt Darvas

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of the 2008-09 global financial and economic crisis on the medium-term growth prospects of the countries of central and eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia, which began an economic transition about two decades ago. We use cross-country growth regressions, putting special emphasis on a proper consideration of the crisis and robustness. We find that the crisis has had a major impact on the within-sample fit of the models used and that the positive impact of EU enlargement on growth is smaller than previous research has shown. The crisis has also altered the future growth prospects of the countries studied, even in the optimistic but unrealistic case of a return to pre-crisis capital inflows and credit booms.

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File URL: http://web.uni-corvinus.hu/matkg/working_papers/wp_2010_5_darvas.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest in its series Working Papers with number 1005.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 22 Dec 2010
Date of revision: 09 Mar 2011
Handle: RePEc:mkg:wpaper:1005

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Keywords: crisis; economic growth; growth regressions; transition countries;

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References

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  1. Zsolt Darvas & Andrew K. Rose & György Szapáry, 2005. "Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic," NBER Working Papers 11580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jean Pisani-Ferry & Pavle Petrovic & Michael A Landesmann & Vladimir Gligorov & Daniel Daianu & Torbjörn Becker & Zsolt Darvas & André Sapir & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, . "Whither growth in central and eastern Europe? Policy lessons for an integrated Europe," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 453, December.
  3. Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Leveraged Carry Trade Portfolios," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0822, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  4. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltán Schepp, 2006. "Long maturity forward rates of major currencies are stationary," Working Papers, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest 0603, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  5. Zsolt Darvas & Gyorgy Szapary, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0824, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  6. Zsolt Darvas, 2008. "Estimation Bias and Inference in Overlapping Autoregressions: Implications for the Target-Zone Literature," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(1), pages 1-22, 02.
  7. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Durlauf, Steven N. & Johnson, Paul A. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2005. "Growth Econometrics," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 555-677 Elsevier.
  9. Sebastian Edwards, 2008. "Globalization, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America," NBER Working Papers 14034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Kosta Josifidis & Radmila Dragutinović Mitrović & Olgica Ivančev, 2012. "Heterogeneity of Growth in the West Balkans and Emerging Europe: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 59(2), pages 157-183, May.
  2. Judit Karsai, 2012. "Development of the Hungarian Venture Capital and Private Equity Industry over the Past Two Decades," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1201, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  3. Zsombor Z. Méder & András Simonovits & János Vincze, 2012. "Tax Morale and Tax Evasion: Social Preferences and Bounded Rationality," Working Papers, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest 1202, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
  4. Zsolt Darvas, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy and Economic Growth after the Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest 1103, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.

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