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Real convergence and its illusions

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  • Kolasa, Marcin

Abstract

This paper uses the EAGLE, a multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model, to illustrate dynamic adjustments in a small open economy undergoing real convergence. We consider the effects of productivity catch-up and misperceptions about future productivity developments. Our results indicate that even if real convergence takes the form of a gradual process, the dynamic responses of key macrovariables can be far from smooth. We also find that overly optimistic expectations about productivity shifts can generate sizable boom-bust cycles and so be relevant in accounting for cyclical deviations from a sustainable real convergence path. Our comparisons across alternative monetary regimes reveal that a flexible exchange rate helps to smooth real convergence processes and misperceptions associated with tradable sector productivity, while the opposite usually holds true for scenarios based on nontradable sector developments. JEL Classification: D58, E32, F41

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1231.

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Date of creation: Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101231

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Keywords: Boom-bust cycles; dynamic general equilibrium models; real convergence;

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Cited by:
  1. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Jacquinot, Pascal & Kolasa, Marcin, 2010. "Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?," Working Paper Series 1280, European Central Bank.
  2. Cristian Stefan Ovidiu, 2011. "The Risks Of A Too Quick Euro Adoption By The Eu Member States. The Case Of Portugal," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 25-32, December.
  3. Vogel, Lukas, 2012. "Structural reforms, fiscal consolidation and external rebalancing in monetary union: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1286-1298.

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