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Rebalancing Growth in Asia

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  • Eswar S. Prasad

Abstract

Rebalancing growth patterns of Asian economies is an important component of the overall rebalancing effort that will be required in the world economy. In this paper, I provide an empirical characterization of the composition of GDP levels and growth rates for the key emerging markets and other developing economies in Asia. China has by far the lowest share of private consumption to GDP in Asia and, during this decade, has recorded the lowest rate of employment growth relative to GDP growth. Investment growth has dominated GDP growth in China during this decade but is also important in the cases of India and Vietnam. To examine the global implications of domestic growth patterns in Asia, I analyze saving-investment balances, the composition of national savings, and the determinants of the evolution of household saving rates. During 2000-08, household saving rates (relative to household income) have risen gradually in China and India but fallen sharply in Korea. Corporate savings have surged across Asia during this period, becoming the main component of gross national savings in the region. In terms of sheer magnitudes, China’s national savings and current account surpluses dominate the region’s saving-investment balances. China accounts for just under half of GDP in Asia ex-Japan, but accounts for 60 percent of total gross national savings and nearly 90 percent of the current account surplus of the region. Finally, I discuss some policy implications that come out of the analysis on how to shift the patterns of growth, especially in China, from a welfare-enhancing perspective.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15169.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15169

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Cited by:
  1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Global imbalances after the financial crisis," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32857, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  2. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benjamin Carton & Ludovic Gauvin, 2011. "Rebalancing Growth in China: An International Perspective," Working Papers 2011-08, CEPII research center.
  3. Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Financial Sector Regulation and Reforms in Emerging Markets: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 16428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Thammarak Moenjak & Kengjai Watjanapukka & Oramone Chantapant & Teeravit Pobsukhirun, 2010. "New Globalization: Risks and Opportunities for Thailand in the Next Decade," Working Papers 2010-04, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  5. Mustapha K. Nabli, 2011. "The Great Recession and Developing Countries : Economic Impact and Growth Prospects," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2539, January.
  6. Yan, Isabel K. & Chan, Kenneth S. & Dang, Vinh Q.T. & Lai, Jennifer T., 2011. "Regional Capital Mobility in China: 1978-2006," MPRA Paper 35217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Petri, Peter A. & Plummer, Michael G., 2009. "The triad in crisis: What we learned and how it will change global cooperation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 700-713, November.
  8. Joseph Fan & Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung, 2011. "Capitalizing China," NBER Working Papers 17687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Kai Liu & Marcos Chamon & Eswar Prasad, 2010. "Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China," IMF Working Papers 10/289, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Shafaeddin, Mehdi, 2010. "The Role of China in Regional South-South Trade in Asia-Pacific: Prospects for industrialization of the low-income countries," MPRA Paper 26358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Xiang Dai & Erzhen Zhang, 2011. "A query to the paper “Are the forces that cause China's trade surplus with the USA good?”: A response to Professor Jonathan E. Leightner," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 45-54, February.
  12. Morgan, Horatio M., 2013. "The Political Economy of Trade-Financial Liberalization and Financial Underdevelopment: A perspective from China," MPRA Paper 50031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils, 2009. "Will global imbalances decrease or even increase?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 32967, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  14. Ito, Hiro & Volz, Ulrich, 2012. "The People’s Republic of China and Global Imbalances from a View of Sectorial Reforms," ADBI Working Papers 393, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  15. Yongfu Cao & Wendy Dobson & Yiping Huang & Peter A. Petri & Michael Plummer & Raimundo Soto & Shinji Takagi., 2010. "Inclusive, Balanced, Sustained Growth in the Asia-Pacific," Documentos de Trabajo 370, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  16. Raghav Gaiha & Katsushi S. Imai & Ganesh Thapa & Woojin Kang, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus, Agricultural Growth and Poverty in Asia and the Pacific Region: Evidence from Panel Data," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0919, Economics, The University of Manchester.

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