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Reshaping Tomorrow : Is South Asia Ready for the Big Leap?

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Author Info

  • Ejaz Ghani

Abstract

What will South Asia look like in 2025? The optimistic outlook is that India, which accounts for 80 per cent of the regional economic output, is headed towards double-digit growth rates. South Asia too will grow rapidly, primarily due to India. The pessimistic outlook is that, given huge transformational challenges facing the region, growth should not be taken for granted. Which of these two outlooks is likely to prevail? This is what this book is all about. It is about the future, and not the past, and how to make smart choices about the future. There is strong empirical justification in favor of the optimistic outlook. Growth will be propelled higher by young demographics, improved governance, rising middle class, and the next wave of globalization. There is democracy, for the first time since independence, in all countries in the region. Young demographics will result in nearly 20 million more people joining the labour force, every year, for the next two decades. Almost a billion people will join the ranks of the middle class. India's middle class is well-educated, enterprising, innovative, and more demanding of better services, products, and governance. The region will benefit from the new wave of globalization in services, and increased international migration and human mobility. Indeed the drivers of growth seem to have already moved from the rich world to the poor world. The room for catch-up is huge, given the big gap in average income between South Asia and the rich countries.

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File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/16360/65420.pdf?sequence=1
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Bibliographic Info

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This book is provided by The World Bank in its series World Bank Publications with number 16360 and published in 2011.

ISBN: 978-0-19-807502-8
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:16360

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Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
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Web page: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org
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Related research

Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Banks & Banking Reform Governance - Governance Indicators Health; Nutrition and Population - Population Policies Poverty Reduction - Achieving Shared Growth Private Sector Development - Emerging Markets;

References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Ghani, Ejaz & Anand, Rahul, 2009. "How will changes in globalization impact growth in south Asia ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5079, The World Bank.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2008. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," NBER Working Papers 14217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Sen, Kunal, 2001. "The Determinants of Private Saving in India," Departmental Working Papers 2001-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  4. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2008. "Does openness to trade make countries more vulnerable to sudden stops, or less? Using gravity to establish causality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1430-1452, December.
  5. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins & Arvind Virmani, 2007. "Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy," NBER Working Papers 12901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Robert E. Baldwin, 2003. "Openness and Growth: What's the Empirical Relationship?," NBER Working Papers 9578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Ben S. Bernanke & Julio J. Rotemberg, 2000. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern00-1, May.
  8. Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," IZA Discussion Papers 3475, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Basu, Kaushik & Maertens, Annemie, 2007. "The Pattern and Causes of Economic Growth in India," Working Papers 07-08, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  10. David Hauner, 2005. "A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves," IMF Working Papers 05/81, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Taylor, Ashley D., 2009. "Thresholds in the process of international financial integration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5149, The World Bank.
  12. Ejaz Ghani & Homi Kharas, 2010. "The Service Revolution," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10187, The World Bank.
  13. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto & Artur Radziwill, 2004. "Sources for Financing Domestic Capital -- Is Foreign Saving a Viable Option for Developing Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10624, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
  15. Kochhar, Kalpana & Kumar, Utsav & Rajan, Raghuram & Subramanian, Arvind & Tokatlidis, Ioannis, 2006. "India's pattern of development: What happened, what follows?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 981-1019, July.
  16. Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Some New Perspectives on India's Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," India Policy Forum, Global Economy and Development Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(1), pages 125-178.
  17. Panagariya, Arvind, 2008. "India: The Emerging Giant," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195315035.
  18. James Ang, 2009. "Household Saving Behaviour in an Extended Life Cycle Model: A Comparative Study of China and India," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(8), pages 1344-1359.
  19. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does financial globalization promote risk sharing?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 258-270, July.
  20. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan & Ioannis Tokatlidis & Kalpana Kochhar & Utsav Kumar, 2006. "India's Pattern of Development," IMF Working Papers 06/22, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sinha, Anushree & Kanbur, Ravi, 2012. "Informality: Concepts, Facts And Models," Working Papers 128801, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  2. World Bank, 2012. "Global Economic Prospects, Volume 5, June 2012 : Managing Growth in a Volatile World," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 12096, October.
  3. Ghani, Ejaz & Kerr, William R. & O’Connell, Stephen D, 2011. "Who Creates Jobs?," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 70, pages 1-7, November.
  4. Prakash Kumar Shrestha Ph.D., 2013. "A Revisit of the East Asian Development Experiences in the Context of South Asia," NRB working Paper 18/2013, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
  5. Ghani, Ejaz & O'Connell, Stephen D. & Sharma, Gunjan, 2013. "Friend or foe or family ? a tale of formal and informal plants in India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6588, The World Bank.

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