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Can Numerical Models Estimate Indirect Land-use Change?

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  • Thierry Brunelle

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement)

  • Patrice Dumas

    (Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement and Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)

Abstract

Motivated by the conclusions from various modelling studies, modifications to the bioenergy sector regulations are under way in Europe and in the USA to account for emissions from indirect land-use change (ILUC). Despite their influence on the policy-making, evaluations of the capacity of numerical models to estimate ILUC are sparse. To address this void, this paper reviews recent developments in land-use modelling, with a particular focus on the solutions adopted to estimate ILUC due to biofuel production. As indirect effects of bioenergy result from the interplay of various mechanisms, their modelling is a major challenge for land-use science. In recent years, numerical models have been significantly upgraded to provide a more comprehensive vision of the agricultural system. This has been performed by improving the representation of land supply and the biofuel production process in general equilibrium models (e.g., GTAP, MIRAGE, DART). At the same time, modelling systems coupling partial equilibrium models with CGE (e.g., KLUM@GTAP) or economic modules with spatially explicit models (e.g., MAgPIE, GLOBIOM, LEITAP), and modelling architecture combining land-use and life-cycle assessment models (e.g., FASOM/FAPRI/GREET) have been developed. In spite of these advances, some limitations remain and uncertainties are still numerous.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2012.65.

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Date of creation: Sep 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.65

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Keywords: Indirect; Land-Use Change; Modelling; Biofuel;

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  1. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2003. "Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems," 2003 Annual Meeting, August 16-22, 2003, Durban, South Africa 25905, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Hermann Lotze-Campen & Christoph Müller & Alberte Bondeau & Stefanie Rost & Alexander Popp & Wolfgang Lucht, 2008. "Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: a spatially explicit mathematical programming approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(3), pages 325-338, November.
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  4. Taheripour, Farzad & Dileep Birur & Thomas Hertel & Wally Tyner, 2007. "Introducing Liquid Biofuels into the GTAP Data Base," GTAP Research Memoranda 2534, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  5. Hongli Feng & Bruce A. Babcock, 2010. "Impacts of Ethanol on Planted Acreage in Market Equilibrium," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 789-802.
  6. Bettina Kretschmer & Sonja Peterson & Adriana Ignaciuk, 2008. "Integrating Biofuels into the DART Model," Kiel Working Papers 1472, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  8. Bettina Kretschmer & Sonja Peterson, 2008. "Integrating Bioenergy into Computable General Equilibrium Models – A Survey," Kiel Working Papers 1473, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  9. Thaeripour, Farzad & Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Beckman, Jayson F. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels and their By-Products: Global Economic and Environmental Implications," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6452, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  10. Decreux, Yvan & Valin, Hugo, 2007. "MIRAGE, Updated Version of the Model for Trade Policy Analysis: Focus on Agriculture and Dynamics," Working Papers 7284, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
  11. Kerstin Ronneberger & Maria Berrittella & Francesco Bosello & Richard S.J. Tol, 2006. "KLUM@GTAP: Introducing biophysical aspects of land-use decisions into a general equilibrium model: A coupling experiment," Working Papers FNU-105, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2006.
  12. Eickhout, Bas & van Meijl, Hans & Tabeau, Andrzej & Stehfest, Elke, 2008. "The Impact of Environmental and Climate Constraints on Global Food Supply," GTAP Working Papers 2608, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  13. Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Sohngen, Brent, 2008. "Land Use Modeling in Recursively-Dynamic GTAP Framework," GTAP Working Papers 2609, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  14. Roman Keeney & Thomas W. Hertel, 2009. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(4), pages 895-909.
  15. Searchinger, Timothy & Heimlich, Ralph & Houghton, R. A. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Hayes, Dermot J. & Yu, Hun-Hsiang, 2008. "Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change," Staff General Research Papers 12881, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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