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The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses

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  • Roman Keeney
  • Thomas W. Hertel

Abstract

Recent analysis has highlighted agricultural land conversion as a significant debit in the greenhouse gas accounting of ethanol as an alternative fuel. A controversial element of this debate is the role of crop yield growth as a means of avoiding cropland conversion in the face of biofuels growth. We find that standard assumptions of yield response are unduly restrictive. Furthermore, we identify both the acreage response and bilateral trade specifications as critical considerations for predicting global land use change. Sensitivity analysis reveals that each of these contributes importantly to parametric uncertainty. Copyright 2009, Oxford University Press.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01308.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in its journal American Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 91 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 895-909

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Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:91:y:2009:i:4:p:895-909

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Cited by:
  1. Thierry Brunelle & Patrice Dumas, 2012. "Can Numerical Models Estimate Indirect Land-use Change?," Working Papers 2012.65, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Vincent Martinet, 2012. "Effect of soil heterogeneity on the welfare economics of biofuel policies," Working Papers 2012/01, INRA, Economie Publique.
  3. Moschini, GianCarlo & Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E., 0. "Economics of Biofuels: An Overview of Policies, Impacts and Prospects," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 3.
  4. Li, Liang & Taheripour, Farzad & Preckel, Paul V. & Tyner, Wallace E., 2012. "Improvement of GTAP Cropland Constant Elasticity of Transformation Nesting Structure," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124704, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  5. Rebecca S. Dodder & Amani Elobeid & Timothy L. Johnson & P. Ozge Kaplan & Lyubov A. Kurkalova & Silvia Secchi & Simla Tokgoz, 2011. "Environmental Impacts of Emerging Biomass Feedstock Markets: Energy, Agriculture, and the Farmer," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 11-wp526, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  6. Baker, Justin Scott & Murray, Brian C. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2011. "Biofuels, Climate Policy, And Water Management: Assessing Policy-Induced Shifts On Agriculture’S Extensive And Intensive Margins," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 104912, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  7. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  8. Mosnier, A. & Havlík, P. & Valin, H. & Baker, J. & Murray, B. & Feng, S. & Obersteiner, M. & McCarl, B.A. & Rose, S.K. & Schneider, U.A., 2013. "Alternative U.S. biofuel mandates and global GHG emissions: The role of land use change, crop management and yield growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 602-614.
  9. Anonymous, 2010. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 6, Issue 1," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 6(1).
  10. Chang, Hung-Hao & Chen, Yu-Hui, 2011. "Are participators in the land retirement program likely to grow energy crops?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(9), pages 3183-3188.
  11. Goodwin, Barry K. & Marra, Michele C. & Piggott, Nicholas E. & Mueller, Steffen, 2012. "Is Yield Endogenous to Price? An Empirical Evaluation of Inter- and Intra-Seasonal Corn Yield Response," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124884, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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