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Land Use Modeling in Recursively-Dynamic GTAP Framework

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  • Golub, Alla
  • Hertel, Thomas
  • Sohngen, Brent

Abstract

*Chapter 10 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol. The goal of this work is to investigate land-use change at the global scale over the long run - particularly in the context of analyzing the fundamental drivers behind land-use related GHG emissions. For this purpose, we identify the most important drivers of supply and demand for land. On the demand side, we begin with a dynamic general equilibrium (GE) model that predicts economic growth in each region of the world, based on exogenous projections of population, skilled and unskilled labor and technical change. Economy-wide growth is, in turn, translated into consumer demand for specific products using an econometrically estimated, international cross-section, demand system that permits us to predict the pattern of future consumer demands across the development spectrum. This is particularly important in the fast-growing, developing countries, where the composition of consumer demand is changing rapidly. These countries also account for an increasing share of global economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. Consumer demand is translated into derived demands for land through a set of sectoral production functions that differentiate the demand for land by Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ).

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University in its series GTAP Working Papers with number 2609.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:2609

Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 48
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Cited by:
  1. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Michel Moreaux & Linda Nøstbakken, 2012. "Do Biofuel Mandates Raise Food Prices?," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201214, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
  2. Alvaro Calzadilla & Ruth Delzeit & Gernot Klepper, 2014. "DART-BIO: Modelling the interplay of food, feed and fuels in a global CGE model," Kiel Working Papers 1896, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Tian, Xiaohui & Sohngen, Brent & Sands, Ronald, 2013. "Modeling a Dynamic Forest Sector in a General Equilibrium Framework," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 149990, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  4. Antoine BOUET & Betina DIMARANAN & Hugo VALIN, 2009. "Biofuels in the world markets: A Computable General Equilibrium assessment of environmental costs related to land use changes," Working Papers 6, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2009.
  5. Thierry Brunelle & Patrice Dumas, 2012. "Can Numerical Models Estimate Indirect Land-use Change?," Working Papers 2012.65, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  6. Ruslana Palatnik & Roberto Roson, 2012. "Climate change and agriculture in computable general equilibrium models: alternative modeling strategies and data needs," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(3), pages 1085-1100, June.
  7. F. Souty & T. Brunelle & P. Dumas & B. Dorin, & P. Ciais & R. Crassous, 2012. "The Nexus Land-Use Model, an Approach Articulating Biophysical Potentials and Economic Dynamics to Model Competition for Land-Uses," Working Papers 2012.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

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