Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał
  • Jacquinot, Pascal
  • Kolasa, Marcin

Abstract

Euro-area accession caused boom-bust cycles in several catching-up economies. Declining interest rates and easier financing conditions fuelled spending and worsened the current account balance. Over time inflation deteriorated external competitiveness and lowered domestic demand, turning the boom into a bust. We ask whether such a scenario can be avoided using macroeconomic tools that are available in the period of joining a monetary union: central parity revaluation, fiscal tightening or increased taxation. While all these policies can be used to cool down the output boom, exchange rate revaluation seems the most attractive option. It simultaneously trims the expansion of output and domestic demand, reduces the cost pressure and ranks first in terms of welfare. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E63

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1280.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1280.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Dec 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101280

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Email:

Related research

Keywords: Boom-bust cycles; dynamic general equilibrium models; euro area accession;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kolasa, Marcin, 2014. "Real convergence and its illusions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 79-88.
  2. Philip R. Lane & Patrick Honohan, 2003. "Divergent Inflation Rates in EMU," Trinity Economics Papers 20034, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper 0107, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  4. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through," Working Paper Series 179, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  5. Zuzana Brixiova & Laura Vartia & Andreas Woergoetter, 2009. "Capital Inflows, Household Debt And The Boom Bust Cycle In Estonia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp965, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: long-run benefits and short-run costs," Working Paper Series 0902, European Central Bank.
  7. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States: will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 0543, European Central Bank.
  8. Tomasz Daras & Jan Hagemejer, 2009. "The long run-effects of the Poland’s accession to the eurozone. Simulation using POLDYN – a dynamic computable general equilibrium model," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 70, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  9. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M, 2006. "Monetary Conservatism and Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5740, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Petar Manchev, 2013. "Gpm6," IMF Working Papers 13/87, International Monetary Fund.
    • Tamim Bayoumi & Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Philippe D Karam & Alessandro Rebucci & Jaewoo Lee & Ben Hunt & Ivan Tchakarov, 2004. "Gem," IMF Occasional Papers 239, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2007. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: a simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Working Paper Series 0747, European Central Bank.
  12. Christoffel, Kai & Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2008. "The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 0944, European Central Bank.
  13. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Massimiliano Pisani, 2010. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 770, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  14. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  15. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
  16. Hamid Faruqee & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2005. "Smooth landing or crash? model based scenarios of global current account rebalancing," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Kolasa, Marcin, 2008. "Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model," MPRA Paper 8750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints:A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," NBER Working Papers 12564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Erceg, Christopher & Guerriei, Luca & Gust, Christopher, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  21. Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2004. "Euro area inflation differentials," Working Paper Series 0388, European Central Bank.
  22. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  23. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
  24. Michał Gradzewicz & Krzysztof Makarski, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Losing Autonomous Monetary Policy after the Euro Adoption in Poland," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 58, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  25. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Adopting the Euro in Central Europe," IMF Occasional Papers 234, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak, 2011. "Poland on the road to the euro: How serious is the risk of boom-bust cycles after the euro adoption? An empirical analysis," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 103, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  2. Matus Senaj & Milan Vyskrabka, 2011. "European Taxes in a Laboratory," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2011, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
  3. A team of the Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101280. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.