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The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of Adopting the Euro

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  • Philippe Karam
  • Douglas Laxton
  • David Rose
  • Natalia Tamirisa

Abstract

This paper uses a two-country version of the global economy model to investigate some costs and benefits of a small, emerging economy's abandoning a flexible exchange rate regime in favor of adopting the currency of its main trading partner. The topic is particularly relevant for countries in central and eastern Europe, which recently joined the European Union and are now preparing to adopt the euro. We begin by evaluating macroeconomic performance in an inflation-targeting regime under various monetary policy rules. The results are then compared with the case where the small economy gives up its flexible exchange rate and joins the monetary union, under a number of alternative assumptions about the magnitude of shocks and structural rigidities. The analysis shows that although the monetary union has the benefit of eliminating exchange rate shocks, the loss of the buffering role of the exchange rate leads to greater volatility in domestic output and inflation. These costs are likely to decline over time, as markets become more competitive, flexible, and integrated in the monetary union. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 339–355. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.9; published online 29 April 2008

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 339-355

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:2:p:339-355

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Cited by:
  1. Kolasa, Marcin, 2010. "Real convergence and its illusions," Working Paper Series 1231, European Central Bank.
  2. Michał Gradzewicz & Krzysztof Makarski, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Losing Autonomous Monetary Policy after the Euro Adoption in Poland," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 58, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  3. Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin, 2010. "From inflation to exchange rate targeting: Estimating the stabilization effects for a small open economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 450-468, December.
  4. Melecky, Ales & Melecky, Martin, 2008. "From Inflation to Exchange Rate Targeting: Estimating the Stabilization Effects," MPRA Paper 10844, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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