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The Macroeconomic Effects of Losing Autonomous Monetary Policy after the Euro Adoption in Poland

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Abstract

There are many issues associated with the Eurozone accession of Poland. The goal of this paper is to analyse one, but very important aspect, namely - the macroeconomic impact of the loss of autonomous monetary policy. In order to answer this question, we build a two country DSGE model with sticky prices. We begin by evaluating the performance of our model. Next, we investigate how joining the Eurozone will affect the business cycle behaviour of the main macroeconomic variables in Poland. We find that the Euro adoption will have a noticeable impact on the Polish economic fluctuations. In particular, the volatility of domestic output increases and the volatility of inflation decreases. Also, in order to quantify the effect of the Euro adoption, we compute the welfare effect of this monetary policy change. Our findings suggest that the welfare cost is not large.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute in its series National Bank of Poland Working Papers with number 58.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:58

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Keywords: Monetary policy; EMU accession countries; Euro;

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References

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  1. Philippe Karam & Douglas Laxton & David Rose & Natalia Tamirisa, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Costs and Benefits of Adopting the Euro," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 339-355, June.
  2. McDaniel, Christine A. & Balistreri, Edward J., 2002. "A Discussion on Armington Trade Substitution Elasticities," Working Papers 15856, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
  3. Frankel, Jeffrey & Rose, Andrew K., 2001. "An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income," Working Paper Series rwp01-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  4. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  5. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  6. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU," IMF Working Papers 04/154, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Pau Rabanal & Vicente Tuesta, 2013. "Nontradable Goods and the Real Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 495-535, July.
  8. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  9. repec:nbr:nberre:0126 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Marcin Kolasa, 2008. "Structural heterogeneity or asymmetric shocks? Poland and the euro area through the lens of a two-country DSGE model," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 49, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  11. Alexandra Lopes, 2006. "The Costs of EMU for Transition Countries," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 149, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2000. "The Welfare Cost of Business Cycles Revisited: Finite Lives and Cyclical Variation in Idiosyncratic Risk," NBER Working Papers 8040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  14. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
  16. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  17. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  18. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andrzej Torój, 2010. "Rationality of Expectations: Another OCA Criterion? A DSGE Analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(3), pages 205-252, June.
  2. Andrzej Toroj, 2011. "Competitiveness channel in Poland and Slovakia: a pre-EMU DSGE analysis," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 86, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  3. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Jacquinot, Pascal & Kolasa, Marcin, 2010. "Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?," Working Paper Series 1280, European Central Bank.
  4. Daras, Tomasz & Hagemejer, Jan, 2008. "The long run-effects of the Poland's accession to the eurozone. Simulation using POLDYN - a dynamic computable general equilibrium model," MPRA Paper 15760, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2011. "Credit crunch in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1406-1428.

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