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Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence

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Author Info
Chris Elbers
Jan Willem Gunning
Bill Kinsey

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Abstract

How exposure to risk affects economic growth is a key issue in development. This article quantifies both the ex ante and ex post effects of risk using long-running panel data for rural households in Zimbabwe. It proposes a simulation-based econometric methodology to estimate the structural form of a micro model of household investment decisions under risk. The key finding is that risk substantially reduces growth in this particular setting: the mean capital stock in the sample is (in expectation) 46 percent lower than in the absence of risk. About two-thirds of the impact of risk is due to the ex ante effect (that is, the behavioral response to risk), which is usually not taken into account in policy design. These results suggest that policy interventions that reduce exposure to shocks or that help households manage risk could be much more effective than is commonly thought. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal The World Bank Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 21 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-20
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Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:21:y:2007:i:1:p:1-20

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning, 2002. "Growth Regression and Economic Theory," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-034/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., . "On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles," GSIA Working Papers 243, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning, 2004. "Estimating Vulnerability," Development and Comp Systems 0408015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2001. "The Empirical Importance of Precautionary Saving," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 406-412, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Binder, M. & Pesaran, M.H., 1996. "Stochastic Growth," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9615, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  6. Levhari, David & Srinivasan, T N, 1969. "Optimal Savings under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(106), pages 153-63, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1999. " Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 139-83, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1999. "Explaining African Economic Performance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 64-111, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation)," NBER Working Papers 6298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Deaton, A. & Grosh, M., 1998. "Consumption," Papers 191, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cesar Calvo & Stefan Dercon, 2005. "Measuring Individual Vulnerability," Economics Series Working Papers 229, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stefan Dercon, 2004. "Growth and Shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," Development and Comp Systems 0409036, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Stefan Dercon (QEH), . "Vulnerability: a micro perspective," QEH Working Papers qehwps149, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  4. Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning, 2004. "Transitional Growth and Income Inequality: Anything Goes," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409001, EconWPA, revised 08 Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]
  5. Stefan Dercon (QEH), . "Risk, Growth and Poverty: what do we know, what do we need to know?," QEH Working Papers qehwps148, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  6. Poelhekke, Steven & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2007. "Volatility, Financial Development and the Natural Resource Curse," CEPR Discussion Papers 6513, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Kenneth Harttgen & Isabel Günther, 2007. "Estimating Vulnerability to Covariate and Idiosyncratic Shocks," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 154, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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