Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence
AbstractHow exposure to risk affects economic growth is a key issue in development. This article quantifies both the ex ante and ex post effects of risk using long-running panel data for rural households in Zimbabwe. It proposes a simulation-based econometric methodology to estimate the structural form of a micro model of household investment decisions under risk. The key finding is that risk substantially reduces growth in this particular setting: the mean capital stock in the sample is (in expectation) 46 percent lower than in the absence of risk. About two-thirds of the impact of risk is due to the ex ante effect (that is, the behavioral response to risk), which is usually not taken into account in policy design. These results suggest that policy interventions that reduce exposure to shocks or that help households manage risk could be much more effective than is commonly thought. Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by World Bank Group in its journal The World Bank Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 21 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, UK
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Fax: 01865 267 985
Web page: http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning & Bill Kinsey, 2004. "Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence," Development and Comp Systems 0408014, EconWPA.
- Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning & Bill Kinsey, 2003. "Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-068/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 19 Sep 2006.
- D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
- D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- O12 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Collier & Jan Willem Gunning, 1998.
"Explaining African economic performance,"
Economics Series Working Papers
WPS/1997-02.2, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning, 2002.
"Growth Regression and Economic Theory,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
02-034/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Deaton, Angus, 1991.
"Saving and Liquidity Constraints,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-48, September.
- Carroll Christopher Dixon, 2001.
"Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation),"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, April.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption Euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation)," NBER Working Papers 6298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher D Carroll, 1997. "Death to the Log-Linearized Consumption euler Equation! (And Very Poor Health to the Second-Order Approximation)," Economics Working Paper Archive 390, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993.
"Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
- Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., 1999.
"On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 245-272, January.
- Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., . "On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles," GSIA Working Papers 243, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2001.
"The Empirical Importance of Precautionary Saving,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 406-412, May.
- Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Parker, Jonathan A, 2001. "The Empirical Importance of Precautionary Saving," CEPR Discussion Papers 2737, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2001. "The Empirical Importance of Precautionary Saving," NBER Working Papers 8107, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998.
"Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
- Krusell, P & Smith Jr, A-A, 1995. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomic," RCER Working Papers 399, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., . "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," GSIA Working Papers 1997-37, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Binder, M. & Pesaran, M.H., 1996. "Stochastic Growth," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9615, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- repec:dgr:uvatin:2002034 is not listed on IDEAS
- Levhari, David & Srinivasan, T N, 1969. "Optimal Savings under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(106), pages 153-63, April.
- Bliss, Christopher, 1999. "Galton's Fallacy and Economic Convergence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 4-14, January.
- Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1999. " Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 139-83, June.
- Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2003. "Macroeconomic Priorities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 1-14, March.
- Jan Willem Gunning & John Hoddinott & Bill Kinsey & Trudy Owens, 1999. "Revisiting forever gained: income dynamics in the resettlement areas of Zimbabwe," CSAE Working Paper Series 1999-14, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Jan Willem Gunning & John Hoddinott & Bill Kinsey & Trudy Owens, 2000. "Revisiting forever gained: Income dynamics in the resettlement areas of Zimbabwe, 1983-96," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 131-154.
- Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning, 2004. "Estimating Vulnerability," Development and Comp Systems 0408015, EconWPA.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Oxford University Press) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.