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Consumption risk, technology adoption, and poverty traps : evidence from Ethiopia

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Author Info
Dercon, Stefan
Christiaensen, Luc

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Abstract

Much has been written on the determinants of input and technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receivingmuch attention. This paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented-the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests. Building on an explicit model, this is explored in panel data for Ethiopia. Historical rainfall distributions are used to identify the counterfactual consumption risk. Controlling for unobserved household and time-varying village characteristics, it emerges that not just ex-ante credit constraints, but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail, discourage the application of fertilizer. The lack of insurance causes inefficiency in production choices.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4257.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4257

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Financial Intermediation; Consumption; Insurance&Risk Mitigation; Inequality;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Morduch, Jonathan, 1995. "Income Smoothing and Consumption Smoothing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 103-14, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Stefan Dercon, 2002. "Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Nets," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 141-166, September.
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  3. Dercon, Stefan, 1996. "Risk, Crop Choice, and Savings: Evidence from Tanzania," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 44(3), pages 485-513, April.
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  4. Luc J. Christiaensen & Kalanidhi Subbarao, 2005. "Towards an Understanding of Household Vulnerability in Rural Kenya," Journal of African Economies, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 520-558, December.
  5. Kurosaki, Takashi & Fafchamps, Marcel, 2002. "Insurance market efficiency and crop choices in Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 419-453, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Townsend, Robert M, 1995. "Consumption Insurance: An Evaluation of Risk-Bearing Systems in Low-Income Economies," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 83-102, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Sandmo, Agnar, 1971. "On the Theory of the Competitive Firm under Price Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 65-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Dercon, Stefan, 2004. "Growth and shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 309-329, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Honore, Bo E, 1992. "Trimmed LAD and Least Squares Estimation of Truncated and Censored Regression Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(3), pages 533-65, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Suleiman Abrar & Oliver Morrissey & Tony Rayner, 2004. "Crop-Level Supply Response by Agro-Climatic Region in Ethiopia," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(2), pages 289-311. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Carlsson, Fredrik & Köhlin, Gunnar & Mekonnen, Alemu & Yesuf, Mahmud, 2005. "Are Agricultural Extension Packages What Ethiopian Farmers Want? A Stated Preference Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 172, Göteborg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E & Zilberman, David, 1985. "Adoption of Agricultural Innovations in Developing Countries: A Survey," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(2), pages 255-98, January.
  14. Eswaran, Mukesh & Kotwal, Ashok, 1990. "Implications of Credit Constraints for Risk Behaviour in Less Developed Economies," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 473-82, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gine, Xavier & Yang, Dean, 2007. "Insurance, credit, and technology adoption : field experimental evidence from Malawi," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4425, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Byerlee, Derek & Spielman, David J. & Alemu, Dawit & Gautam, Madhur, 2007. "Policies to promote cereal intensification in Ethiopia: A review of evidence and experience," IFPRI discussion papers 707, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Christiaensen, Luc & Hoffmann, Vivian & Sarris, Alexander, 2007. "Gauging the welfare effects of shocks in rural Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4406, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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