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Estimating Vulnerability

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Author Info

  • Chris Elbers

    (Free University Amsterdam)

  • Jan Willem Gunning

    (Free University Amsterdam)

Abstract

Many existing measures of vulnerability lack a theoretical basis. In this paper we propose to measure vulnerability rigorously as the welfare of a household which solves an intertemporal optimisation model under risk.In such models, in essence a stochastic version of the Ramsey model, an important part of chronic poverty may be caused by the ex ante response of households to risks. Our simulation results indicate that whether or not a household is to be classified as vulnerable depends strongly on the time horizon considered. We use the model to assess the accuracy of existing regression-based vulnerability measures. We find that these methods can be vastly improved by including asset measures in the regression.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/dev/papers/0408/0408015.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Development and Comp Systems with number 0408015.

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Date of creation: 13 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0408015

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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

Related research

Keywords: Vulnerability; household models.;

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Cited by:
  1. Chris Elbers & Jan Willem Gunning & Bill Kinsey, 2004. "Growth and Risk: Methodology and Micro Evidence," Development and Comp Systems 0408014, EconWPA.
  2. Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Trade openness and vulnerability to poverty: Vietnam in the long-run (1992-2008)," Working Paper Series 3512, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  3. Thorbecke, Erik, 2004. "Conceptual and Measurement Issues in Poverty Analysis," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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