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Strategic design under uncertain evaluations: structural analysis of design‐build auctions

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  • Hidenori Takahashi

Abstract

I investigate firms' competition over price and product design under uncertain design evaluations in the context of Design‐Build (DB) auctions. Reviewers' design evaluations contain uncertainty from a bidder's perspective, leading luck to dampen differences in the firms' chances of winning. I model bidders' behavior and show semiparametric identification of the model primitives. Uncertain design evaluations increase the expected price of design quality and exacerbate an auctioneer's uncertainty in auction outcomes. These effects are mostly due to changes in bidding strategies. Bid ranking swaps due to uncertain evaluations account for a small share of these effects.

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  • Hidenori Takahashi, 2018. "Strategic design under uncertain evaluations: structural analysis of design‐build auctions," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 49(3), pages 594-618, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:randje:v:49:y:2018:i:3:p:594-618
    DOI: 10.1111/1756-2171.12246
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Yangguang, 2019. "An empirical study of scoring auctions and quality manipulation corruption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    3. NAKABAYASHI Jun & HIROSE Yohsuke, 2016. "Structural Estimation of the Scoring Auction Model," Discussion papers 16008, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Yunmi Kong & Isabelle Perrigne & Quang Vuong, 2022. "Multidimensional Auctions of Contracts: An Empirical Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1703-1736, May.
    5. Jason Allen & Robert Clark & Brent Hickman & Eric Richert, 2019. "Resolving Failed Banks: Uncertainty, Multiple Bidding & Auction Design," Staff Working Papers 19-30, Bank of Canada.
    6. Huang, Yangguang & Xia, Jijun, 2019. "Procurement auctions under quality manipulation corruption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 380-399.
    7. Yao Luo & Hidenori Takahashi, 2022. "Bidding for Contracts under Uncertain Demand: Skewed Bidding and Risk Sharing," Working Papers tecipa-732, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    8. Wenzheng Gao & Daiqiang Zhang & Naibao Zhao, 2021. "Uncertainty In Procurement Contracting With Time Incentives," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1153-1197, August.

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