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The Predictability of Social Events

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Mie Augier & Michael Prietula, 2007. "Perspective---Historical Roots of the A Behavioral Theory of the Firm Model at GSIA," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 507-522, June.
  2. Aligica, Paul Dragos, 2013. "Institutional Diversity and Political Economy: The Ostroms and Beyond," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199843909, Decembrie.
  3. Velupillai, K. Vela, 2006. "A disequilibrium macrodynamic model of fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 752-767, December.
  4. Antonio Fazio, 2005. "Franco Modigliani," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 249-261.
  5. Bernard Walliser, 1982. "Equilibres et anticipations," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 33(4), pages 594-638.
  6. Enrico Giovannini, 2008. "Statistics and Politics in a “Knowledge Society”," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 86(2), pages 177-200, April.
  7. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
  8. Dopke, Jorg, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasts and the nature of economic shocks in Germany," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 181-201.
  9. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2016: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(02), pages 72-78, January.
  10. Victor Zarnowitz & Phillip Braun, 1993. "Twenty-two Years of the NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects and Comparisons of Forecasting Performance," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 11-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2003. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2002: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(02), pages 20-23, January.
  12. Lehmann-Waffenschmidt, Marco & Sandri, Serena, 2007. "Recursivity and Self-Referentiality of Economic Theories and Their Implications for Bounded Rational Actors," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 03/07, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  13. Charles Van Marrewijk, 2005. "Basic Exchange Rate Theories," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-01, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  14. Hosseini, Hamid, 2003. "The arrival of behavioral economics: from Michigan, or the Carnegie School in the 1950s and the early 1960s?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 391-409, September.
  15. Kuhle, Wolfgang, 2021. "Equilibrium with computationally constrained agents," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 77-92.
  16. Myerson, Roger B. & Weber, Robert J., 1993. "A Theory of Voting Equilibria," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(1), pages 102-114, March.
  17. Antonio Fazio, 2005. "Franco Modigliani," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 58(233-234), pages 249-261.
  18. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Konjunkturprognosen heute – Möglichkeiten und Probleme," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(01), pages 25-32, January.
  20. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
  21. Klinger, Sabine & Heilemann, Ullrich, 2005. "Zu wenig Wettbewerb? Zu Stand und Entwicklung der Genauigkeit makroökonomischer Prognosen," Technical Reports 2005,16, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  22. John G. Thistle, 2018. "The Origin and the Resolution of Nonuniqueness in Linear Rational Expectations," Papers 1806.06657, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
  23. Juan C. Perdomo, 2025. "Revisiting the Predictability of Performative, Social Events," Papers 2503.11713, arXiv.org.
  24. Moore, Kevin Clare, 1985. "Predictive econometric modeling of the United States farmland market: an empirical test of the rational expectations hypothesis," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800008872, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  25. Beth Allen & James S. Jordan, 1998. "The existence of rational expectations equilibrium: a retrospective," Staff Report 252, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  26. Elisa Darriet & Sacha Bourgeois-Gironde, 2015. "Why lay social representations of the economy should count in economics," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 14(2), pages 245-258, November.
  27. Annarita COLASANTE & Antonio PALESTRINI & Alberto RUSSO & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2015. "Adaptive Expectations with Correction Bias: Evidence from the lab," Working Papers 409, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  28. Colasante, Annarita & Palestrini, Antonio & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2017. "Adaptive expectations versus rational expectations: Evidence from the lab," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 988-1006.
  29. Alice Martini & Luca Spataro, 2022. "The contribution of Carlo Casarosa on the forerunners of the life cycle hypothesis by Franco Modigliani and Richard Brumberg," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 69(1), pages 71-101, March.
  30. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Jamus Jerome Lim & Terence Tan, 2016. "Endogenous transactions costs and institutions in the 2007/08 financial crisis," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 56-85, February.
  32. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2009: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(02), pages 30-33, January.
  33. Robert P. Lieli & Augusto Nieto-Barthaburu, 2023. "Forecasting with Feedback," Papers 2308.15062, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
  34. Choy, Keen Meng & Leong, Kenneth & Tay, Anthony S., 2006. "Non-fundamental expectations and economic fluctuations: Evidence from professional forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 446-460, June.
  35. Colasante, Annarita & Palestrini, Antonio & Russo, Alberto & Gallegati, Mauro, 2015. "Heterogeneous Adaptive Expectations and Coordination in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," MPRA Paper 66578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Reto Cueni & Bruno S. Frey, 2014. "Forecasts and Reactivity," CREMA Working Paper Series 2014-10, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  37. Wolfgang Kuhle, 2016. "An Equilibrium Model with Computationally Constrained Agents," Papers 1611.01771, arXiv.org.
  38. Isabelle This & Claude Jessua, 1996. "Problèmes épistémologiques liés à l'autoréalisation des théories et des prévisions économiques," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(3), pages 555-565.
  39. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2015. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2014: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(02), pages 43-49, January.
  41. Sargent, Thomas J., 1996. "Expectations and the nonneutrality of Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 535-548, June.
  42. Xie, Zixiong & Hsu, Shih-Hsun, 2016. "Time varying biases and the state of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 716-725.
  43. Lehmann-Waffenschmidt, Marco, 2006. "Self-Referential Optimal Advising When Reactions are Delayed," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/06, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  44. Tura-Gawron, Karolina, 2019. "Consumers’ approach to the credibility of the inflation forecasts published by central banks: A new methodological solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  45. David J. Smyth, 1974. "The Effect of Forecasting in a Simple Stochastic Macroeconomic Model," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 170-172, April.
  46. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88, September.
  47. K. Vela Velupillai, 2007. "Variations On The Theme Of Conning In Mathematical Economics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 466-505, July.
  48. Alho, Juha M., 2014. "Forecasting demographic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1128-1135.
  49. Romain Bocher, 2022. "The Intersubjective Markets Hypothesis," Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, , vol. 34(1), pages 35-50, January.
  50. K.Vela Velupillai, 2014. "Friedman's Characterization of the Natural Rate of Unemployment," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1411, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
  51. K. Vela Velupillai, 2007. "Variations on the Theme of Conning in Mathematical Economics," Department of Economics Working Papers 0703, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  52. Cukierman, Alex, 1991. "Asymmetric Information and the Electoral Momentum of Public Opinion Polls," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 181-213, May.
  53. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2016. "Wirtschaftskonjunktur 2015: Prognose und Wirklichkeit," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(03), pages 34-40, February.
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