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The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change

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Cited by:

  1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
  2. Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-Linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 603-619.
  3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
  5. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  6. Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 20-38, February.
  7. Costas Anyfantakis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 2008. "Parameter instability and forecasting performance: a Monte Carlo study," International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20.
  8. Martin McCarthy, Stephen Snudden, 2024. "Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data," LCERPA Working Papers jc0148, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Oct 2024.
  9. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
  10. Imad Moosa & Kelly Burns, 2014. "A reappraisal of the Meese--Rogoff puzzle," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(1), pages 30-40, January.
  11. Amat, Christophe & Michalski, Tomasz & Stoltz, Gilles, 2018. "Fundamentals and exchange rate forecastability with simple machine learning methods," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 1-24.
  12. Agnieszka P. Markiewicz & Ralph C. Verhoeks & Willem F. C. Verschoor & Remco C. J. Zwinkels, 2023. "Inattentive Search for Currency Fundamentals," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(4), pages 907-952, December.
  13. Imad Moosa & Kelly Burns, 2014. "Error correction modelling and dynamic specifications as a conduit to outperforming the random walk in exchange rate forecasting," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(25), pages 3107-3118, September.
  14. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Sookyung, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability and a monetary model with time-varying cointegration coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 394-410.
  15. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Toni Beutler, 2010. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 125-173.
  16. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
  17. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 179-193, April.
  18. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  19. Nicholas Sarantis, 1994. "The monetary exchange rate model in the long run: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(4), pages 698-711, December.
  20. Kim, Young Min & Lee, Seojin, 2020. "Exchange rate predictability: A variable selection perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 117-134.
  21. Sobel, Russell S, 1998. "Exchange Rate Evidence on the Effectiveness of United Nations Policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(1-2), pages 1-25, April.
  22. repec:zbw:rwirep:0134 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
  24. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 2001. "Nominal exchange-rate prediction: evidence from a nonlinear approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 521-532, August.
  25. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2949, CESifo.
  26. Kouwenberg, Roy & Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Verhoeks, Ralph & Zwinkels, Remco C. J., 2017. "Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 341-363, February.
  27. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  28. repec:zbw:rwirep:0272 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
  30. Mr. Zhongxia Jin, 2003. "The Dynamics of Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments in China: 1980-2002," IMF Working Papers 2003/067, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Siliverstovs, Boriss, 2017. "Dissecting models' forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 294-299.
  32. Haaparanta, Pertti & Heinonen, Tarja, 1990. "Re-opening of banks' certificates of deposit market," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/1990, Bank of Finland.
  33. Wang, Jian-Xin & Wong, Hoi-In, 1997. "The predictability of Asian exchange rates: evidence from Kalman filter and ARCH estimations," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 231-252, October.
  34. Manish KUMAR, 2009. "Exploiting The Information Of Stock Market To Forecast Exchange Rate Movements," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 56, pages 563-575, November.
  35. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Christou, Costas & Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 1998. "A general framework for predicting returns from multiple currency investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 977-1000, May.
  37. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
  38. Benjamin J. C. Kim & David Karemera, 2006. "Assessing the forecasting accuracy of alternative nominal exchange rate models: the case of long memory," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 369-380.
  39. Vijay Bhawnani & K. Rao Kadiyala, 1997. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates in developing economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-62.
  40. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 0134, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  41. Si Mohammed, Kamel & Chérif touil, Noreddine & Maliki, Samir, 2015. "An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity of the Algerian Exchange Rate: Evidence from Panel Dynamic," MPRA Paper 75285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  42. Mariia Artemova & Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Zhaokun Zhang, 2021. "Forecasting in a changing world: from the great recession to the COVID-19 pandemic," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-006/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  43. Kelly Burns, 2016. "A Reconsideration of the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle: An Alternative Approach to Model Estimation and Forecast Evaluation," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 20(1), pages 41-83, March.
  44. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2015. "The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
  45. Marcelo Moura, 2010. "Testing the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 547-564, September.
  46. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
  47. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 1998. "On the Japanese Yen-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 75-102, March.
  48. de Souza Vasconcelos, Camila & Hadad Júnior, Eli, 2023. "Forecasting exchange rate: A bibliometric and content analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 607-628.
  49. Carlos Eduardo Castillo-Maldonado & Fidel Pérez-Macal, 2013. "Assessment of models to forecast exchange rates: The quetzal–U.S. dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 16, pages 71-99, May.
  50. Joscha Beckmann, 2011. "Nonlinear Adjustment, Purchasing Power Parity and the Role of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 0272, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  51. Havenner, Arthur & Modjtahedi, Bagher, 1986. "Foreign Exchange Rates: A Multiple Currency And Maturity Analysis," Working Papers 225804, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  52. Ellen E. Meade & Charles P. Thomas, 1991. "Using external sustainability to forecast the dollar," International Finance Discussion Papers 398, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  53. Aristidou, Chrystalleni & Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder, 2022. "Fundamentals, regimes and exchange rate forecasts: Insights from a meta exchange rate model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  54. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2012. "Model Uncertainty And Exchange Rate Volatility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 815-844, August.
  55. Francis Vitek, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle," International Finance 0509005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Hsin-Min Lu & Chia-Shang J. Chu, 2006. "Random walk hypothesis in exchange rate reconsidered," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 275-290.
  57. Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu, 2014. "Window Selection for Out-of-Sample Forecasting with Time-Varying Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 10168, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  58. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
  59. Ken Johnston & David Carter & John Hatem, 2005. "Exchange rates, and fundamental variables: a semi-parametric analysis of binary choice," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(16), pages 1915-1924.
  60. Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu & Rossi, Barbara, 2017. "Rolling window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 55-67.
  61. Najand, Mohammad & Bond, Charlotte, 2000. "Structural models of exchange rate determination," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 15-27, January.
  62. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Cointegration, structural breaks and monetary fundamentals of the Dollar/Yen Exchange," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(4), pages 397-412, November.
  63. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 93(4), pages 3-46, July-Augu.
  64. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:4:p:397-412 is not listed on IDEAS
  65. Moosa, Imad & Burns, Kelly, 2014. "The unbeatable random walk in exchange rate forecasting: Reality or myth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 69-81.
  66. Christou, Costas & Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 1996. "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 483-493, December.
  67. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Do fundamentals matter for the D-Mark/Euro-Dollar? A regime switching approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 321-335, February.
  68. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
  69. Yousuf, Kashif & Ng, Serena, 2021. "Boosting high dimensional predictive regressions with time varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 60-87.
  70. Haskamp, Ulrich, 2017. "Forecasting exchange rates: The time-varying relationship between exchange rates and Taylor rule fundamentals," Ruhr Economic Papers 704, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  71. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
  72. König, Peter & Möller, Joachim, 1988. "Deviations from uncovered interest parity: A Kalman filter approach to the Mark/Dollar rate and the Swiss Franc/Dollar rate," Discussion Papers, Series II 52, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
  73. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
  74. Sarantis, Nicholas & Swales, Caspar, 1999. "Modelling and forecasting regional service employment in Great Britain1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 429-453, August.
  75. Merza, Ebrahim & Moosa, Imad A., 2023. "Pitfalls in Econometric Forecasting with Illustrations from Exchange Rate Economics," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 76(2), pages 147-172.
  76. Joscha Beckmann & Michael Kühl, 2017. "The Role for Long-run Target Values of the Exchange Rate in the Bank of Japan's Policy Reaction Function," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(9), pages 1836-1865, September.
  77. Joscha Beckmann & Dionysius Glycopantis & Keith Pilbeam, 2018. "The dollar–euro exchange rate and monetary fundamentals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1389-1410, June.
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