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The out-of-sample forecasting performance of exchange rate models when coefficients are allowed to change

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  2. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
  3. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  4. Fratzscher, Marcel & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Zinna, Gabriele, 2015. "The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
  5. Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1991. "An Empirical Assessment of Non-Linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 603-619.
  6. Marcelo Moura, 2010. "Testing the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 547-564, September.
  7. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.
  8. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
  9. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 1998. "On the Japanese Yen-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 75-102, March.
  10. Rossi, Barbara, 2006. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 20-38, February.
  11. Costas Anyfantakis & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nikitas Pittis, 2008. "Parameter instability and forecasting performance: a Monte Carlo study," International Journal of Business Forecasting and Marketing Intelligence, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20.
  12. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
  13. Michalski , Tomasz & Amat , Christophe, 2014. "Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Forecastability with Machine Learning Methods," Les Cahiers de Recherche 1049, HEC Paris.
  14. Joscha Beckmann, 2011. "Nonlinear Adjustment, Purchasing Power Parity and the Role of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 0272, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  15. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 93(4), pages 3-46, July-Augu.
  16. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Sookyung, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability and a monetary model with time-varying cointegration coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 394-410.
  17. Havenner, Arthur & Modjtahedi, Bagher, 1986. "Foreign Exchange Rates: A Multiple Currency And Maturity Analysis," Working Papers 225804, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  18. Zhongxia Jin, 2003. "The Dynamics of Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments in China; 1980-2002," IMF Working Papers 03/67, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Toni Beutler, 2010. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 125-173 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Ericsson, Neil R., 1992. "Parameter constancy, mean square forecast errors, and measuring forecast performance: An exposition, extensions, and illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 465-495, August.
  21. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 179-193, April.
  22. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2012. "Model Uncertainty And Exchange Rate Volatility," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(3), pages 815-844, August.
  23. Francis Vitek, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle," International Finance 0509005, EconWPA.
  24. Hsin-Min Lu & Chia-Shang J. Chu, 2006. "Random walk hypothesis in exchange rate reconsidered," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 275-290.
  25. Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu & Rossi, Barbara, 2014. "Window Selection for Out-of-Sample Forecasting with Time-Varying Parameters," CEPR Discussion Papers 10168, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Nicholas Sarantis, 1994. "The monetary exchange rate model in the long run: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(4), pages 698-711, December.
  27. Sobel, Russell S, 1998. "Exchange Rate Evidence on the Effectiveness of United Nations Policy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 95(1-2), pages 1-25, April.
  28. repec:zbw:rwirep:0134 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David, 2001. "Currency traders and exchange rate dynamics: a survey of the US market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 439-471, August.
  30. Ken Johnston & David Carter & John Hatem, 2005. "Exchange rates, and fundamental variables: a semi-parametric analysis of binary choice," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(16), pages 1915-1924.
  31. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
  32. Inoue, Atsushi & Jin, Lu & Rossi, Barbara, 2017. "Rolling window selection for out-of-sample forecasting with time-varying parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 55-67.
  33. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
  34. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 2001. "Nominal exchange-rate prediction: evidence from a nonlinear approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 521-532, August.
  35. Najand, Mohammad & Bond, Charlotte, 2000. "Structural models of exchange rate determination," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 15-27, January.
  36. Carlos Eduardo Castillo-Maldonado & Fidel Pérez-Macal, 2013. "Assessment of models to forecast exchange rates: The quetzal–U.S. dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 16, pages 71-99, May.
  37. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Cointegration, structural breaks and monetary fundamentals of the Dollar/Yen Exchange," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(4), pages 397-412, November.
  38. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:4:p:397-412 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2949, CESifo Group Munich.
  40. Moosa, Imad & Burns, Kelly, 2014. "The unbeatable random walk in exchange rate forecasting: Reality or myth?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 69-81.
  41. Kouwenberg, Roy & Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Verhoeks, Ralph & Zwinkels, Remco C. J., 2017. "Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(01), pages 341-363, February.
  42. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Kühl, Michael, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 134, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  43. Christou, Costas & Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 1996. "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 483-493, December.
  44. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Do fundamentals matter for the D-Mark/Euro-Dollar? A regime switching approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 321-335, February.
  45. repec:zbw:rwirep:0272 is not listed on IDEAS
  46. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
  47. Wang, Jian-Xin & Wong, Hoi-In, 1997. "The predictability of Asian exchange rates: evidence from Kalman filter and ARCH estimations," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 231-252, October.
  48. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
  49. Manish KUMAR, 2009. "Exploiting The Information Of Stock Market To Forecast Exchange Rate Movements," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 56, pages 563-575, November.
  50. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Christou, Costas & Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 1998. "A general framework for predicting returns from multiple currency investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 977-1000, May.
  52. Mougoué, Mbodja & Aggarwal, Raj, 2011. "Trading volume and exchange rate volatility: Evidence for the sequential arrival of information hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2690-2703, October.
  53. Sarantis, Nicholas & Swales, Caspar, 1999. "Modelling and forecasting regional service employment in Great Britain1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 429-453, August.
  54. Benjamin J. C. Kim & David Karemera, 2006. "Assessing the forecasting accuracy of alternative nominal exchange rate models: the case of long memory," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 369-380.
  55. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 0134, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  56. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:294-299 is not listed on IDEAS
  57. Si Mohammed, Kamel & Chérif touil, Noreddine & Maliki, Samir, 2015. "An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity of the Algerian Exchange Rate: Evidence from Panel Dynamic," MPRA Paper 75285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  58. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:9:p:1836-1865 is not listed on IDEAS
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