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Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals
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Cited by:
- Masazumi Hattori & Steven Kong & Frank Packer & Toshitaka Sekine, 2016.
"The effects of a central bank's inflation forecasts on private sector forecasts: Recent evidence from Japan,"
BIS Working Papers
585, Bank for International Settlements.
- Masazumi Hattori & Steven Kong & Frank Packer & Toshitaka Sekine, 2016. "The effects of a central bank's inflation forecasts on private sector forecasts: Recent evidence from Japan," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-11, Bank of Japan.
- Ashima Goyal & Prashant Parab, 2021. "Effectiveness of expectations channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2021-011, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis," Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
- Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2017.
"The Stabilizing Role of Forward Guidance: A Macro Experiment,"
VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking
168063, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2018. "The stabilizing role of forward guidance: A macro experiment," BERG Working Paper Series 137, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
- Pedersen, Michael, 2015. "What affects the predictions of private forecasters? The role of central bank forecasts in Chile," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1043-1055.
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Policy implications of learning from more accurate central bank forecasts,"
Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 466-474.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Policy implications of learning from more accurate Central Bank Forecasts," Post-Print hal-03459994, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Policy implications of learning from more accurate Central Bank Forecasts," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7qiov5j7308, Sciences Po.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Policy implications of learning from more accurate Central Bank Forecasts," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459994, HAL.
- Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha & Vänni, Ilona, 2020. "Reading between the lines : Using text analysis to estimate the loss function of the ECB," Research Discussion Papers 12/2020, Bank of Finland.
- Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2018. "On the formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: The case of the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 132-139.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2t6uivimtr9438i2qqu6kgfded is not listed on IDEAS
- Salas Sergio & Nuñez Javier, 2020.
"Signaling in monetary policy near the zero lower bound,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-19, January.
- Sergio Salas & Javier Núñez, 2017. "Signaling in monetary policy near the zero lower bound," Working Papers 2017-02, Escuela de Negocios y Economía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso.
- Maritta Paloviita & Markus Haavio & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Juha Kilponen, 2021. "What Does "Below, but Close to, 2 Percent" Mean? Assessing the ECB's Reaction Function with Real-Time Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 125-169, June.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/79hle3i1b69dqrocqsjarh6lb1 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2016.
"Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation,"
SciencePo Working papers Main
hal-03459462, HAL.
- Hubert, Paul & Maule, Becky, 2016. "Policy and macro signals as inputs to inflation expectation formation," Bank of England working papers 581, Bank of England.
- Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2016. "Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2016. "Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation," Working Papers hal-03459462, HAL.
- Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2016. "Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation," Sciences Po publications 2016-02, Sciences Po.
- Jakub Rybacki, 2019.
"Forward guidance and the private forecast disagreement – case of Poland,"
Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 50(4), pages 411-428.
- Rybacki, Jakub, 2019. "Forward Guidance and the private forecast disagreement – case of Poland," MPRA Paper 94465, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Siklos, Pierre, 2017.
"What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks And Their Competitors,"
LCERPA Working Papers
0098, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 01 Apr 2017.
- Pierre L. Siklos, 2018. "What has publishing inflation forecasts accomplished? Central banks and their competitors," CAMA Working Papers 2018-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "What has publishing inflation forecasts accomplished? Central banks and their competitors," CAMA Working Papers 2017-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge C.N. & Tonzer, Lena, 2017.
"Central bank transparency and cross-border banking,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1-30.
- Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge & Tonzer, Lena, 2016. "Central Bank Transparency and Cross-border Banking," IWH Discussion Papers 16/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Littke, Helge C. N. & Eichler, Stefan & Tonzer, Lena, 2016. "Central Bank Transparency and Cross-Border Banking," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145598, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Hubert Paul, 2017.
"Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-41, January.
- Paul Hubert, 2014. "Disentangling qualitative and quantitative central bank influence," Sciences Po publications 2014-23, Sciences Po.
- Paul Hubert, 2017. "Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations," Post-Print hal-03409181, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2017. "Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03409181, HAL.
- Galdi, Giulio & Casarin, Roberto & Ferrari, Davide & Fezzi, Carlo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023.
"Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
- Giulio Galdi & Roberto Casarin & Davide Ferrari & Carlo Fezzi & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "Nowcasting industrial production using linear and non-linear models of electricity demand," DEM Working Papers 2022/2, Department of Economics and Management.
- Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge C. N., 2017. "Central bank transparency and the volatility of exchange rates," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance,"
Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9, Sciences Po.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01087522, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Post-Print hal-01087522, HAL.
- Ana Cristina Pereira Das Neves, 2018. "The Mass Media Transmission Of Central Bank Communication Under Uncertainty," Anais do XLIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 44th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 54, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Muto, Ichiro, 2013.
"Productivity growth, transparency, and monetary policy,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 329-344.
- Ichiro Muto, 2007. "Productivity Growth, Transparency, and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-08, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Tomasz Łyziak & Maritta Paloviita, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times. Recent evidence from the European Survey of Professional Forecasters," NBP Working Papers 261, Narodowy Bank Polski.
- Duffy, John & Heinemann, Frank, 2021.
"Central bank reputation, cheap talk and transparency as substitutes for commitment: Experimental evidence,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 887-903.
- John Duffy & Frank Heinemann, 2016. "Central Bank Reputation, Cheap Talk and Transparency as Substitutes for Commitment: Experimental Evidence," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-053, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- John Duffy & Frank Heinemann, 2016. "Central Bank Reputation, Cheap Talk and Transparency as Substitutes for Commitment: Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 161703, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Baumann, Ursel & Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Westermann, Thomas & Riggi, Marianna & Bobeica, Elena & Meyler, Aidan & Böninghausen, Benjamin & Fritzer, Friedrich & Trezzi, Riccardo & Jonckheere, Jana & , 2021. "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting," Occasional Paper Series 264, European Central Bank.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
- Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
- Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
- Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2012. "Are central bank projections rational?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(13), pages 1257-1263, September.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_007 is not listed on IDEAS
- Pierre L. Siklos, 2016. "Forecast Disagreement and the Inflation Outlook: New International Evidence," IMES Discussion Paper Series 16-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Michael Pedersen, 2013. "What Affects the Predictions of Private Forecasters? The Role of Central Bank Forecasts," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 686, Central Bank of Chile.
- Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
- Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel, 2022.
"Inflation expectations in the euro area: trends and policy considerations,"
SciencePo Working papers Main
hal-03943684, HAL.
- Christophe Blot & Caroline Bozou & Jérôme Creel, 2022. "Inflation expectations in the euro area: trends and policy considerations," Post-Print hal-03943684, HAL.
- Antón Sarabia Arturo & Bazdresch Santiago & Lelo-de-Larrea Alejandra, 2023. "The Influence of Central Bank's Projections and Economic Narrative on Professional Forecasters' Expectations: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2023-21, Banco de México.
- Yoichi Tsuchiya, 2021. "The value added of the Bank of Japan's range forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(5), pages 817-833, August.
- Tien Nguyen & Dung Phuong Hoang & Thang Ngoc Doan, 2022. "On the uncertainty-global bank linkage nexus: The moderation of crises, financial regulations, and institutional quality," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(4), pages 623-645, October.
- Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times: Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_013 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
- Magdalena Szyszko & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2019. "Forward-looking component in consumers’ expectations and inflation forecast targeting: the case of six European economies," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 77-112.
- Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis," Working Paper 2021/1, Norges Bank.
- Toshitaka Sekine & Frank Packer & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2022.
"Individual Trend Inflation,"
IMES Discussion Paper Series
22-E-14, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Toshitaka Sekine & Frank Packer & Shunichi Yoneyama, 2022. "Individual Trend Inflation," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 042, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
- Claus, Edda & Nguyen, Viet Hoang, 2018. "Consumptor economicus: How do consumers form expectations on economic variables?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 254-275.
- Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2020. "How Did Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect Economic Forecasts?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 206-220, January.
- Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times : Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?," Research Discussion Papers 13/2017, Bank of Finland.
- Szyszko Magdalena & Próchniak Mariusz, 2018. "Is Central Banks’ Effectiveness Related to their Transparency? A Case of European Economies," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 18(2), pages 121-143, December.
- Eichler, Stefan & Littke, Helge C.N., 2018. "Central bank transparency and the volatility of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 23-49.
- Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2011. "Are central bank projections rational?," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 11-05, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
- Couture, Cody, 2021. "Financial market effects of FOMC projections," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
- Tura-Gawron, Karolina, 2019. "Consumers’ approach to the credibility of the inflation forecasts published by central banks: A new methodological solution," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_012 is not listed on IDEAS
- Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9gfpnuruelqjnptb is not listed on IDEAS
- Pooja Kapoor & Sujata Kar, 2024. "Do Central Bank Communications Influence Survey of Professional Forecasters? An Empirical Investigation," Business Perspectives and Research, , vol. 12(1), pages 100-112, January.
- Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: A state dependent analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
- de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Simão Filho, José & Abreu, Vanessa Castro, 2023. "Central bank’s forecasts and lack of transparency: An assessment of the effect on private expectations in a large emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
- repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7qiov5j7308rbprdcjkq8udd2u is not listed on IDEAS
- Narayan Bulusu, 2020. "Why Do Central Banks Make Public Announcements of Open Market Operations?," Staff Working Papers 20-35, Bank of Canada.
- Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha, 2017. "What does "below, but close to, two percent" mean? Assessing the ECB's reaction function with real time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2017, Bank of Finland.
- Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- repec:gdk:wpaper:50 is not listed on IDEAS
- Luigi Bonatti, & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "What to expect from inflation expectations: theory, empirics and policy issues," DEM Working Papers 2022/1, Department of Economics and Management.
- de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Deus, Joseph David Barroso Vasconcelos, 2019. "Central bank forecasts and private expectations: An empirical assessment from three emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 234-244.
- Stephen J. Cole & Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2019. "The Effect of Central Bank Credibility on Forward Guidance in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Globalization Institute Working Papers 375, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 20 Mar 2021.