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The probability of bankruptcy: A comparison of empirical predictions and theoretical models

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  1. Casado Yusta, Silvia & Nœ–ez Letamendía, Laura & Pacheco Bonrostro, Joaqu’n Antonio, 2018. "Predicting Corporate Failure: The GRASP-LOGIT Model || Predicci—n de la quiebra empresarial: el modelo GRASP-LOGIT," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 294-314, Diciembre.
  2. Lubom??r L??zal, 2002. "Determinants of Financial Distress: What Drives Bankruptcy in a Transition Economy? The Czech Republic Case," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 451, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. Chkir, Imed Eddine & Cosset, Jean-Claude, 2001. "Diversification strategy and capital structure of multinational corporations," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 17-37, February.
  4. Dariusz Sala & Kostiantyn Pavlov & Olena Pavlova & Anton Demchuk & Liubomur Matiichuk & Dariusz Cichoń, 2023. "Determining of the Bankrupt Contingency as the Level Estimation Method of Western Ukraine Gas Distribution Enterprises’ Competence Capacity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-13, February.
  5. Dimitras, A. I. & Slowinski, R. & Susmaga, R. & Zopounidis, C., 1999. "Business failure prediction using rough sets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 263-280, April.
  6. Pompe, Paul P.M. & Bilderbeek, Jan, 2005. "The prediction of bankruptcy of small- and medium-sized industrial firms," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 847-868, November.
  7. Gao, M. & Yen, J. & Liu, M., 2021. "Determinants of defaults on P2P lending platforms in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 334-348.
  8. Dimitras, A. I. & Zanakis, S. H. & Zopounidis, C., 1996. "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 487-513, May.
  9. Laitinen, Erkki K. & Laitinen, Teija, 2000. "Bankruptcy prediction: Application of the Taylor's expansion in logistic regression," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 327-349.
  10. Maurice Peat, 2007. "Factors Affecting the Probability of Bankruptcy: A Managerial Decision Based Approach," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 43(3), pages 303-324, September.
  11. International Association of Deposit Insurers, 2011. "Evaluation of Deposit Insurance Fund Sufficiency on the Basis of Risk Analysis," IADI Research Papers 11-11, International Association of Deposit Insurers.
  12. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2021. "Changes in New Zealand's business insolvency rates after the GFC," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(2), pages 173-187, May.
  13. Ulrich Erlenmaier & Hans Gersbach, 2014. "Default Correlations in the Merton Model," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1775-1809.
  14. ANDREICA Madalina Ecaterina & ANDREICA Mugurel Ionut & ANDREICA Marin, 2009. "Using financial ratios to identify Romanian distressed companies," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(1 Special), pages 46-55, July.
  15. Paolo Angelis & Fulvio Gismondi & Riccardo Ottaviani, 1994. "A non-parametric statistical model for the control of Italian insurance companies," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 17(1), pages 69-84, March.
  16. Tamás Kristóf & Miklós Virág, 2020. "A Comprehensive Review of Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction in Hungary," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-20, February.
  17. Maurice Peat, 2001. "Bankruptcy Probability: A Theoretical and Empirical Examination," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 20, July-Dece.
  18. Oliver Lukason & María-del-Mar Camacho-Miñano, 2019. "Bankruptcy Risk, Its Financial Determinants and Reporting Delays: Do Managers Have Anything to Hide?," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-15, July.
  19. Mari-Vidal, Sergio & Segui-Mas, Elies & Marin-Sanchez, Maria del Mar & Mateos-Ronco, Alicia, 2012. "Assessing the usefulness of accounting information as an instrument to predict business failure in Spanish cooperatives," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 128561, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  20. Hernandez Tinoco, Mario & Holmes, Phil & Wilson, Nick, 2018. "Polytomous response financial distress models: The role of accounting, market and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 276-289.
  21. Lohmann, Christian & Möllenhoff, Steffen, 2023. "Dark premonitions: Pre-bankruptcy investor attention and behavior," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  22. Jarmila Horváthová & Martina Mokrišová, 2018. "Risk of Bankruptcy, Its Determinants and Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, October.
  23. Balcaen, Sofie & Ooghe, Hubert, 2006. "35 years of studies on business failure: an overview of the classic statistical methodologies and their related problems," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 63-93.
  24. Francesco Dainelli & Francesco Giunta & Fabrizio Cipollini, 2013. "Determinants of SME credit worthiness under Basel rules: the value of credit history information," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 66(264), pages 21-47.
  25. Elena Gregova & Katarina Valaskova & Peter Adamko & Milos Tumpach & Jaroslav Jaros, 2020. "Predicting Financial Distress of Slovak Enterprises: Comparison of Selected Traditional and Learning Algorithms Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-17, May.
  26. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 1997. "Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1721-1742, December.
  27. Maurice Peat & Stewart Jones, 2012. "Using Neural Nets To Combine Information Sets In Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 90-101, April.
  28. Elena G. Shershneva, Min Zhou Hao, 2024. "Russian Banks Financial Stability Loss Diagnostic: Multidimensional Logit-Model Approach," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(2), pages 476-498.
  29. Edward I. Altman, 1996. "Corporate Bond and Commercial Loan Portfolio Analysis," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-6, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  30. Bhimani, Alnoor & Gulamhussen, Mohamed Azzim & Lopes, Samuel Da-Rocha, 2010. "Accounting and non-accounting determinants of default: An analysis of privately-held firms," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 517-532, November.
  31. Christian Lohmann & Thorsten Ohliger, 2017. "Nonlinear Relationships and Their Effect on the Bankruptcy Prediction," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 18(3), pages 261-287, August.
  32. Ali Shaddady & Faisal Alnori, 2020. "Do Ownership Structure, Political Connections and Executive Compensation Have Multifaceted Effects on Firm Performance? An Alternative Approach," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(10), pages 1-22, October.
  33. García-Gallego, Ana & Mures-Quintana, María-Jesús, 2013. "La muestra de empresas en los modelos de predicción del fracaso: influencia en los resultados de clasificación || The Sample of Firms in Business Failure Prediction Models: Influence on Classification," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 15(1), pages 133-150, June.
  34. Westgaard, Sjur & van der Wijst, Nico, 2001. "Default probabilities in a corporate bank portfolio: A logistic model approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 338-349, December.
  35. Oliver Lukason & Art Andresson, 2019. "Tax Arrears Versus Financial Ratios in Bankruptcy Prediction," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, December.
  36. du Jardin, Philippe, 2015. "Bankruptcy prediction using terminal failure processes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(1), pages 286-303.
  37. Suzan Hol & Nico van der Wijst, 2006. "The financing structure of non-listed firms," Discussion Papers 468, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  38. Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2010. "The development of a simple and intuitive rating system under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 500-510, June.
  39. Adler Haymans Manurung & Derwin Suhartono & Benny Hutahayan & Noptovius Halimawan, 2023. "Probability Bankruptcy Using Support Vector Regression Machines," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(1), pages 1-3.
  40. Nisansala Wijekoon & A. Abdul Azeez, 2015. "An Integrated Model to Predict Corporate Failure of Listed Companies in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 5(7), pages 1-14, July.
  41. Udochukwu Godfrey Ogbonna & Chukwu Agwu Ejem, 2020. "Dynamic Modeling of Market Value and Capital Structure in Nigerian Firms," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 1-5.
  42. Hall, Viv & McDermott, John, 2019. "Changes in New Zealand’s Business Insolvency Rates after the GFC," Working Paper Series 8251, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  43. Ana GARCÍA-GALLEGO & María-Jesús MURES-QUINTANA, 2016. "Principal Components And Canonical Correlation Analyses As Complementary Tools. Application To The Processing Of Financial Information," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(4), pages 249-266.
  44. John W. Pacey & Toan M. Pham, 1990. "The Predictiveness of Bankruptcy Models: Methodological Problems and Evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 15(2), pages 315-337, December.
  45. Lukason, Oliver & Laitinen, Erkki K., 2019. "Firm failure processes and components of failure risk: An analysis of European bankrupt firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 380-390.
  46. Claro, D. P., 2006. "The value of downstream information: exploring the effects of business networks on buyer-supplier relationships," Insper Working Papers wpe_56, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  47. Bose, Indranil & Pal, Raktim, 2006. "Predicting the survival or failure of click-and-mortar corporations: A knowledge discovery approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(2), pages 959-982, October.
  48. Serrano-Cinca, Carlos & Gutiérrez-Nieto, Begoña & Bernate-Valbuena, Martha, 2019. "The use of accounting anomalies indicators to predict business failure," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 353-375.
  49. Peresetsky, A. A., 2011. "What factors drive the Russian banks license withdrawal," MPRA Paper 41507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  50. Masatoshi Miyake, 2024. "Estimating Asset Parameters Using Levy’s Moment Matching Method," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-17, April.
  51. Christian Lohmann & Thorsten Ohliger, 2020. "Bankruptcy prediction and the discriminatory power of annual reports: empirical evidence from financially distressed German companies," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 90(1), pages 137-172, February.
  52. Sunti Tirapat & Aekkachai Nittayagasetwat, 1999. "An Investigation of Thai Listed Firms' Financial Distress Using Macro and Micro Variables," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 103-125, June.
  53. MAHMOOD H. AL-OSAIMY & Ahmed S. Bamakhramah, 2004. "An Early Warning System for Islamic Banks Performance نظام الإنذار المبكر لأداء البنوك الإسلامية," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 17(1), pages 3-14, January.
  54. Nádasdy, Bence, 2000. "Portfólióalapú hitelkockázat-kezelés [Portfolio-based management of credit risk]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 373-384.
  55. D'Antoni, Jeremy M. & Mishra, Ashok K. & Chintawar, Sachin, 2009. "Predicting Financial Stress in Young and Beginning Farmers in the United States," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46861, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  56. Katarina Valaskova & Dominika Gajdosikova & Jaroslav Belas, 2023. "Bankruptcy prediction in the post-pandemic period: A case study of Visegrad Group countries," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 253-293, March.
  57. Cakir, Murat, 2005. "Firma Başarısızlığının Dinamiklerinin Belirlenmesinde Makina Öğrenmesi Teknikleri: Ampirik Uygulamalar ve Karşılaştırmalı Analiz [Machine Learning Techniques in Determining the Dynamics of Corporat," MPRA Paper 55975, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  58. Jackson, Richard H.G. & Wood, Anthony, 2013. "The performance of insolvency prediction and credit risk models in the UK: A comparative study," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 183-202.
  59. Izan, H. Y., 1984. "Corporate distress in Australia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 303-320, June.
  60. Khoja, Layla & Chipulu, Maxwell & Jayasekera, Ranadeva, 2019. "Analysis of financial distress cross countries: Using macroeconomic, industrial indicators and accounting data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  61. Elena G. Shershneva, 2024. "CAMELS parameters’ impact on the risk of losing financial stability: The case of Russian banks," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 130-152, July.
  62. Tang, Lingxiao & Cai, Fei & Ouyang, Yao, 2019. "Applying a nonparametric random forest algorithm to assess the credit risk of the energy industry in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 563-572.
  63. Viv B Hall & C John McDermott, 2019. "Changes in New Zealand’s Business Insolvency Rates after the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers 19_15, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
  64. Jones, Stewart & Hensher, David A., 2007. "Modelling corporate failure: A multinomial nested logit analysis for unordered outcomes," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 89-107.
  65. Qunfeng LIAO & Seyed MEHDIAN, 2016. "Measuring Financial Distress And Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy: An Index Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 33-51, June.
  66. Sumaira Ashraf & Elisabete G. S. Félix & Zélia Serrasqueiro, 2019. "Do Traditional Financial Distress Prediction Models Predict the Early Warning Signs of Financial Distress?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, April.
  67. Eriksson, Kent & Jonsson, Sara & Lindbergh, Jessica & Lindstrand, Angelika, 2014. "Modeling firm specific internationalization risk: An application to banks’ risk assessment in lending to firms that do international business," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1074-1085.
  68. Nisansala Wijekoon & A. Abdul Azeez, 2015. "An Integrated Model to Predict Corporate Failure of Listed Companies in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 5(7), pages 1-14, July.
  69. John Trussel, 1997. "Default probability on corporate bonds: A contingent claims model," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(2), pages 199-209.
  70. ElBannan, Mona A., 2021. "On the prediction of financial distress in emerging markets: What matters more? Empirical evidence from Arab spring countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
  71. Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2013. "Modeling reasons for Russian bank license withdrawal: Unaccounted factors," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 30(2), pages 49-64.
  72. Tanzina Haque, 2023. "“Impact of Bankruptcy Risk on Reporting Aelay: An Empirical Evidence from Engineering Industry in Bangladesh.â€," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(8), pages 1538-1552, August.
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  74. Cesare Bartolini & Donia El Kateb & Yves Le Traon & David Hagen, 2018. "Cloud providers viability," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 28(1), pages 53-75, February.
  75. Alex Frino & Stewart Jones & Jin Boon Wong, 2007. "Market behaviour around bankruptcy announcements: evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 47(4), pages 713-730, December.
  76. Grice, John Stephen & Ingram, Robert W., 2001. "Tests of the generalizability of Altman's bankruptcy prediction model," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 53-61, October.
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  79. Bhimani, Alnoor & Gulamhussen, Mohamed Azzim & Lopes, Samuel, 2009. "The effectiveness of the auditor's going-concern evaluation as an external governance mechanism: Evidence from loan defaults," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 239-255, September.
  80. Peluso, Stefano & Mira, Antonietta & Muliere, Pietro, 2015. "Reinforced urn processes for credit risk models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 1-12.
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  82. Trussel, John, 1997. "Default probability on corporate bonds: A contingent claims model," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 199-209.
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