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Efficiency of online football betting markets

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Dagaev, Dmitry & Stoyan, Egor, 2020. "Parimutuel betting on the eSports duels: Evidence of the reverse favourite-longshot bias," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  2. Saidjon Shiralievich Tavarov & Alexander Sidorov & Zsolt Čonka & Murodbek Safaraliev & Pavel Matrenin & Mihail Senyuk & Svetlana Beryozkina & Inga Zicmane, 2023. "Control of Operational Modes of an Urban Distribution Grid under Conditions of Uncertainty," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-18, April.
  3. Jan van Ours, 2025. "Non-Transitive Patterns in Sports Match Outcomes: A Profitable Anomaly," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-015/V, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2017. "Prediction market prices under risk aversion and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 105-114.
  5. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Are sports betting markets semistrong efficient? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 387, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  6. Goto, Shingo & Yamada, Toru, 2023. "What drives biased odds in sports betting markets: Bettors’ irrationality and the role of bookmakers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 252-270.
  7. Raphael Flepp & Oliver Merz & Egon Franck, 2024. "When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 414-429, January.
  8. David Winkelmann & Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2024. "Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 54-97, January.
  9. Elaad, Guy & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2020. "Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
  10. Luca De Angelis & J. James Reade, 2022. "Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-01, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
  11. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2025. "Forecasting soccer matches with betting odds: A tale of two markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 803-820.
  12. da Costa, Igor Barbosa & Marinho, Leandro Balby & Pires, Carlos Eduardo Santos, 2022. "Forecasting football results and exploiting betting markets: The case of “both teams to score”," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 895-909.
  13. Jonas Vandenbruaene & Jan Annaert & Marc De Ceuster, 2025. "How digitalization can shape markets: the case of sports betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 92(366), pages 644-673, April.
  14. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Underestimating randomness: Outcome bias in betting exchange markets," Working Papers 390, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  15. Jan C. van Ours, 2025. "Non-transitive patterns in sports match outcomes: a profitable anomaly," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(6), pages 4057-4087, December.
  16. Marc Garnica-Caparrós & Daniel Memmert & Fabian Wunderlich, 2022. "Artificial data in sports forecasting: a simulation framework for analysing predictive models in sports," Information Systems and e-Business Management, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 551-580, September.
  17. Wunderlich, Fabian & Memmert, Daniel, 2020. "Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 713-722.
  18. David Winkelmann & Maya Vienken & Christian Deutscher & Roland Langrock, 2026. "Betting Against Integrity: Identifying Match-Fixing Through In-Play Market Dynamics," Papers 2605.30209, arXiv.org.
  19. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
  20. Robin Maximilian Stetzka & Stefan Winter, 2023. "How rational is gambling?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1432-1488, September.
  21. Jan van Ours, 2025. "On Bogey Teams and Circular Triads: Psychological Factors in Team Performance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-018/V, Tinbergen Institute.
  22. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  23. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2020. "Betting Market Efficiency in the Presence of Unfamiliar Shocks: The Case of Ghost Games during the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 8526, CESifo.
  24. Kai Fischer & W. Benedikt Schmal, 2025. "Pricing in response to new information: The case of betting markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 63(1), pages 236-264, January.
  25. Ramirez, Philip & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2023. "Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1413-1423.
  26. Ruud H. Koning & Renske Zijm, 2023. "Betting market efficiency and prediction in binary choice models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 135-148, June.
  27. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2025. "Betting on momentum in contests," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 63(4), pages 1066-1089, October.
  28. J Reade & C Singleton & L Vaughan Williams, 2020. "Betting Markets for English Premier League Results and Scorelines: Evaluating a Simple Forecasting Model," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 25(1), pages 87-106, March.
  29. Merz, Oliver & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2021. "Sonic Thunder vs. Brian the Snail: Are people affected by uninformative racehorse names?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  30. Vaughan Williams Leighton & Liu Chunping & Dixon Lerato & Gerrard Hannah, 2021. "How well do Elo-based ratings predict professional tennis matches?," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 91-105, June.
  31. Guy Elaad, 2020. "Home-field advantage and biased prediction markets in English soccer," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(14), pages 1170-1174, July.
  32. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2022. "Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 294-316, May.
  33. David Winkelmann & Christian Deutscher & Marius Ötting, 2021. "Bookmakers’ mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(26), pages 3054-3064, June.
  34. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Do Gamblers Understand Complex Bets? Evidence From Asian Handicap Betting on Soccer," CEPR Discussion Papers 18153, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  35. Tadgh Hegarty, 2021. "Information and price efficiency in the absence of home crowd advantage," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(21), pages 1902-1907, December.
  36. J. James Reade & Carl Singleton & Alasdair Brown, 2021. "Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(2), pages 261-285, May.
  37. Salvatore Caruso & Giuseppe Pernagallo, 2021. "On the efficiency of online soccer betting markets: a new methodology based on symbolic series," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1451-1460.
  38. Whelan, Karl, 2025. "Agreeing to Disagree: The Economics of Betting Exchanges," CEPR Discussion Papers 20633, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  39. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-10, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    • Marius Otting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2022. "Gambling on Momentum," Papers 2211.06052, arXiv.org.
  40. Fry, John & Serbera, Jean-Philippe & Wilson, Rob, 2021. "Managing performance expectations in association football," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 445-453.
  41. Luca De Angelis & J. James Reade, 2023. "Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 391-418, June.
  42. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2023. "Disagreement and Market Structure in Betting Markets: Theory and Evidence from European Soccer," CEPR Discussion Papers 18144, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  43. Jacek P Dmochowski, 2023. "A statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(6), pages 1-22, June.
  44. Hegarty, Tadgh & Whelan, Karl, 2024. "Comparing Two Methods for Testing the Efficiency of Sports Betting Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 19486, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  45. Dmitry Dagaev & Egor Stoyan, 2019. "Parimutuel Betting On The Esports Duels: Reverse Favourite-Longshot Bias And Its Determinants," HSE Working papers WP BRP 216/EC/2019, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  46. Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Carl Singleton & Luca De Angelis, 2023. "Gambling on Momentum in Contests," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2023-08, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
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