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Obstawianie meczy jako forma zarobku na przykładzie Arki Gdynia, Cracovii i Lecha Poznań

Author

Listed:
  • Błażej Kicior

    (Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu)

Abstract

Celem komunikatu jest empiryczna ocena możliwości traktowania zakładów bukmacherskich jako formy zarobku na przykładzie remisów w meczach Arki Gdynia, Cracovii i Lecha Poznań w sezonie 2025/2026 PKO BP Ekstraklasy. W oparciu o literaturę dotyczącą efektywności rynków bukmacherskich i strategii progresywnych, zebrano kursy trzech największych polskich bukmacherów (STS, Fortuna, Superbet) oraz zastosowano strategię Fibonacciego dla zakładów na remis, przy minimalnym kursie powyżej progu wskazywanego w badaniach Demir et al. (2012). Przeprowadzono testy t oraz testy F w celu porównania średnich kursów oraz wariancji między bukmacherami i drużynami, a następnie obliczono wskaźniki rentowności (ROI, ROC, ich odpowiedniki na mecz) dla każdej drużyny. Wyniki wskazują, że wybór bukmachera nie ma istotnego wpływu na zwrot, natomiast struktura wyników drużyny jest kluczowa – najwyższe zyski osiągnięto dla Cracovii, charakteryzującej się największą liczbą remisów. Autor podkreśla jednak wysokie ryzyko strategii, możliwość bardzo dużych stawek przy długich seriach bez remisów, ograniczoną próbę oraz pominięcie podatku, co uniemożliwia traktowanie bukmacherki jako klasycznej inwestycji finansowej. Wnioski mają charakter eksploracyjny i akcentują znaczenie zarządzania kapitałem oraz świadomości ryzyka po stronie graczy.

Suggested Citation

  • Błażej Kicior, 2026. "Obstawianie meczy jako forma zarobku na przykładzie Arki Gdynia, Cracovii i Lecha Poznań," Ekonomiczno-Ekonometryczne Roczniki Naukowe, Krzysztof Łuczka, vol. 1(1), pages 25-33, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eoj:eernjo:a2a6b462-cf1a-4f90-b13d-358ee3febca3
    DOI: 10.67455/eern.2026.1.1.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ender Demir & Hakan Danis & Ugo Rigoni, 2012. "Is the Soccer Betting Market Efficient? A Cross-Country Investigation Using the Fibonacci Strategy," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(2), pages 29-49, August.
    2. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca, 2019. "Efficiency of online football betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 712-721.
    3. Wheatcroft, Edward, 2020. "A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 916-932.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    5. Jirí Lahvicka, 2014. "The Fibonacci Strategy Revisited: Can You Really Make Money by Betting on Soccer Draws?," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 8(2), pages 72-77.
    6. Wheatcroft, Edward, 2020. "A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103712, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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