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Extreme Value Theory and Value at Risk: Application to oil market

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Cited by:

  1. Hussain, Saiful Izzuan & Li, Steven, 2015. "Modeling the distribution of extreme returns in the Chinese stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 263-276.
  2. Karmakar, Madhusudan, 2013. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures in the Indian stock market: An extreme value approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 79-85.
  3. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2016. "Spikes and crashes in the oil market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 615-623.
  4. Herrera, Rodrigo & González, Nicolás, 2014. "The modeling and forecasting of extreme events in electricity spot markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 477-490.
  5. Karmakar, Madhusudan & Shukla, Girja K., 2015. "Managing extreme risk in some major stock markets: An extreme value approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-25.
  6. Med Imen Gallali & Raggad Zahraa, 2012. "Evaluation of VaR models' forecasting performance: the case of oil markets," International Journal of Financial Services Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3), pages 197-215.
  7. Samit Paul & Madhusudan Karmakar, 2017. "Relative Efficiency of Component GARCH-EVT Approach in Managing Intraday Market Risk," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 21(4), pages 247-283, December.
  8. Zi‐Yi Guo, 2020. "Stochastic multifactor models in risk management of energy futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(12), pages 1918-1934, December.
  9. Szubzda Filip & Chlebus Marcin, 2019. "Comparison of Block Maxima and Peaks Over Threshold Value-at-Risk models for market risk in various economic conditions," Central European Economic Journal, Sciendo, vol. 6(53), pages 70-85, January.
  10. Wilson Calmon & Eduardo Ferioli & Davi Lettieri & Johann Soares & Adrian Pizzinga, 2021. "An Extensive Comparison of Some Well‐Established Value at Risk Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(1), pages 148-166, April.
  11. Pushpa Dissanayake & Teresa Flock & Johanna Meier & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2021. "Modelling Short- and Long-Term Dependencies of Clustered High-Threshold Exceedances in Significant Wave Heights," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-33, November.
  12. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Nomikos, Nikos K. & Pouliasis, Panos K., 2011. "Forecasting petroleum futures markets volatility: The role of regimes and market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 321-337, March.
  14. Ghorbel, Ahmed & Trabelsi, Abdelwahed, 2014. "Energy portfolio risk management using time-varying extreme value copula methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 470-485.
  15. Benjamin R. Auer & Benjamin Mögel, 2016. "How Accurate are Modern Value-at-Risk Estimators Derived from Extreme Value Theory?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6288, CESifo.
  16. Jacek Osiewalski & Krzysztof Osiewalski, 2016. "Hybrid MSV-MGARCH Models – General Remarks and the GMSF-SBEKK Specification," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(4), pages 241-271, December.
  17. Danielsson, Jon & James, Kevin R. & Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur, 2016. "Model risk of risk models," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 79-91.
  18. Ra l De Jes s Guti rrez & Lidia E. Carvajal Guti rrez & Oswaldo Garcia Salgado, 2023. "Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimation for Mexico s Isthmus Crude Oil Using Long-Memory GARCH-EVT Combined Approaches," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 467-480, July.
  19. Halkos, George & Tsirivis, Apostolos, 2019. "Using Value-at-Risk for effective energy portfolio risk management," MPRA Paper 91674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Julia S. Mehlitz & Benjamin R. Auer, 2021. "Time‐varying dynamics of expected shortfall in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 895-925, June.
  21. Herrera, Rodrigo, 2013. "Energy risk management through self-exciting marked point process," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-76.
  22. Chen, Liyuan & Zerilli, Paola & Baum, Christopher F., 2019. "Leverage effects and stochastic volatility in spot oil returns: A Bayesian approach with VaR and CVaR applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 111-129.
  23. Wei Kuang, 2022. "Oil tail-risk forecasts: from financial crisis to COVID-19," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(4), pages 420-460, December.
  24. Wang, Xinya & Liu, Huifang & Huang, Shupei & Lucey, Brian, 2019. "Identifying the multiscale financial contagion in precious metal markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 209-219.
  25. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugando, Mikel, 2015. "Downside risks in EU carbon and fossil fuel markets," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 17-35.
  26. Dilip Kumar, 2017. "A Study of Risk Spillover in the Crude Oil and the Natural Gas Markets," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(6), pages 1465-1477, December.
  27. Herrera, Rodrigo & González, Sergio & Clements, Adam, 2018. "Mutual excitation between OECD stock and oil markets: A conditional intensity extreme value approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 70-88.
  28. František Čech & Jozef Baruník, 2019. "Panel quantile regressions for estimating and predicting the value‐at‐risk of commodities," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(9), pages 1167-1189, September.
  29. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yi-Ming Wei & Bao-Jun Tang & Rong-Gang Cong & Hao Yu & Hong Cao & Dabo Guan, 2017. "Risk assessment of oil price from static and dynamic modelling approaches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 929-939, February.
  30. Madhusudan Karmakar, 2013. "Estimation of tail‐related risk measures in the Indian stock market: An extreme value approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 79-85, September.
  31. Emrah ALTUN & Morad ALIZADEH & Gamze OZEL & Hüseyin TATLIDIL & Najmieh MAKSAYI, 2017. "Forecasting Value-At-Risk With Two-Step Method: Garch-Exponentiated Odd Log-Logistic Normal Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 97-115, December.
  32. Feng, Zhen-Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming & Wang, Kai, 2012. "Estimating risk for the carbon market via extreme value theory: An empirical analysis of the EU ETS," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 97-108.
  33. He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung & Yen, Jerome, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-911, September.
  34. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A., 2013. "A wavelet decomposition approach to crude oil price and exchange rate dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-57.
  35. Morelli, Giacomo, 2023. "Stochastic ordering of systemic risk in commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  36. Alkathery, Mohammed A. & Chaudhuri, Kausik & Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2022. "Implications of clean energy, oil and emissions pricing for the GCC energy sector stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  37. Swidan, Hassan & Merkert, Rico & Kwon, Oh Kang, 2019. "Designing optimal jet fuel hedging strategies for airlines – Why hedging will not always reduce risk exposure," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 20-36.
  38. Małgorzata Just & Aleksandra Łuczak, 2020. "Assessment of Conditional Dependence Structures in Commodity Futures Markets Using Copula-GARCH Models and Fuzzy Clustering Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-22, March.
  39. Krzysztof Echaust & Małgorzata Just, 2021. "Tail Dependence between Crude Oil Volatility Index and WTI Oil Price Movements during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
  40. Tahani S. Alotaibi & Luciana Dalla Valle & Matthew J. Craven, 2022. "The Worst Case GARCH-Copula CVaR Approach for Portfolio Optimisation: Evidence from Financial Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, October.
  41. Jamshed Y. Uppal & Syeda Rabab Mudakkar, 2014. "Mitigating Vulnerability to Oil Price Risk— Applicability of Risk Models to Pakistan’s Energy Problem," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(3), pages 293-308.
  42. Westgaard, Sjur & Fleten, Stein-Erik & Negash, Ahlmahz & Botterud, Audun & Bogaard, Katinka & Verling, Trude Haugsvaer, 2021. "Performing price scenario analysis and stress testing using quantile regression: A case study of the Californian electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
  43. Jan M. Smolarski & Jose G. Vega, 2013. "Extreme events: a study of small oil and gas firms," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(3), pages 809-836, September.
  44. Manel Youssef & Lotfi Belkacem & Khaled Mokni, 2015. "Extreme Value Theory and long-memory-GARCH Framework: Application to Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(8), pages 371-388, August.
  45. Li, Longqing, 2017. "A Comparative Study of GARCH and EVT Model in Modeling Value-at-Risk," MPRA Paper 85645, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Jean-Paul Laurent & Hassan Omidi Firouzi, 2022. "Market Risk and Volatility Weighted Historical Simulation After Basel III," Working Papers hal-03679434, HAL.
  47. Laporta, Alessandro G. & Merlo, Luca & Petrella, Lea, 2018. "Selection of Value at Risk Models for Energy Commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 628-643.
  48. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Araújo Santos, Paulo & Al-Hassan, Abdullah, 2013. "Downside risk management and VaR-based optimal portfolios for precious metals, oil and stocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 318-334.
  49. Paraschiv, Florentina & Mudry, Pierre-Antoine & Andries, Alin Marius, 2015. "Stress-testing for portfolios of commodity futures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 9-18.
  50. Karmakar, Madhusudan & Paul, Samit, 2016. "Intraday risk management in International stock markets: A conditional EVT approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 34-55.
  51. Mouridi M. HAMIDOU & Joseph K. Mung'atu & George O. Orwa, 2018. "Return Levels Approach and Periods of Currency Crises," Journal of Mathematics Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(3), pages 77-96, June.
  52. Herrera, Rodrigo & Rodriguez, Alejandro & Pino, Gabriel, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting extreme commodity prices: A Markov-Switching based extreme value model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 129-143.
  53. L. Kourouma & Denis Dupré & G. Sanfilippo & O. Taramasco, 2011. "Extreme Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall during Financial Crisis," Post-Print halshs-00658495, HAL.
  54. Chebbi, Ali & Hedhli, Amel, 2022. "Revisiting the accuracy of standard VaR methods for risk assessment: Using the Copula–EVT multidimensional approach for stock markets in the MENA region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 430-445.
  55. Chang, Ting-Huan & Su, Hsin-Mei & Chiu, Chien-Liang, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation with the optimal dynamic biofuel portfolio," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 264-272, March.
  56. Shen, Yifan & Shi, Xunpeng & Variam, Hari Malamakkavu Padinjare, 2018. "Risk transmission mechanism between energy markets: A VAR for VaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 377-388.
  57. Zhi-Fu Mi & Yue-Jun Zhang, 2011. "Estimating the 'value at risk' of EUA futures prices based on the extreme value theory," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(2/3/4), pages 145-157.
  58. Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2022. "Spillover effects between commodity and stock markets: A SDSES approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  59. Benjamin Mögel & Benjamin R. Auer, 2018. "How accurate are modern Value-at-Risk estimators derived from extreme value theory?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 979-1030, May.
  60. Xiao, Yang, 2020. "The risk spillovers from the Chinese stock market to major East Asian stock markets: A MSGARCH-EVT-copula approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 173-186.
  61. Shuo Sun & Molei Qin & Xinrun Wang & Bo An, 2023. "PRUDEX-Compass: Towards Systematic Evaluation of Reinforcement Learning in Financial Markets," Papers 2302.00586, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
  62. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Models with Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Risk Management of Commodity Derivatives," EconStor Preprints 167619, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  63. Chao Huang & Jin-Guan Lin & Yan-Yan Ren, 2013. "Testing for the shape parameter of generalized extreme value distribution based on the $$L_q$$ -likelihood ratio statistic," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 76(5), pages 641-671, July.
  64. Youssef, Manel & Belkacem, Lotfi & Mokni, Khaled, 2015. "Value-at-Risk estimation of energy commodities: A long-memory GARCH–EVT approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 99-110.
  65. Hussain, Muntazir & Zebende, Gilney Figueira & Bashir, Usman & Donghong, Ding, 2017. "Oil price and exchange rate co-movements in Asian countries: Detrended cross-correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 338-346.
  66. Halkos, George E. & Tsirivis, Apostolos S., 2019. "Value-at-risk methodologies for effective energy portfolio risk management," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 197-212.
  67. de Oliveira, Francisco Alexandre & de Paiva, Anderson Paulo & Lima, José Wanderley Marangon & Balestrassi, Pedro Paulo & Mendes, Ronã Rinston Amaury, 2011. "Portfolio optimization using Mixture Design of Experiments: Scheduling trades within electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 24-32, January.
  68. Ze Shen & Minglu Wang & Qing Wan, 2023. "Tail risk of coal futures in China's market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(S2), pages 2827-2845, June.
  69. Kostas Andriosopoulos & Nikos Nomikos, 2012. "Risk management in the energy markets and Value-at-Risk modelling: a Hybrid approach," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/47, European University Institute.
  70. Szymon Lis & Marcin Chlebus, 2021. "Comparison of the accuracy in VaR forecasting for commodities using different methods of combining forecasts," Working Papers 2021-11, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  71. Bradley T. Ewing & Farooq Malik & Hassan Anjum, 2019. "Forecasting value‐at‐risk in oil prices in the presence of volatility shifts," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 341-350, July.
  72. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  73. Antonio Díaz & Gonzalo García-Donato & Andrés Mora-Valencia, 2019. "Quantifying Risk in Traditional Energy and Sustainable Investments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-22, January.
  74. Yun-Shi Dai & Peng-Fei Dai & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2023. "Tail dependence structure and extreme risk spillover effects between the international agricultural futures and spot markets," Papers 2303.11030, arXiv.org.
  75. Dai, Zhifeng & Kang, Jie & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "Predicting stock returns: A risk measurement perspective," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
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