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Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Marwil J. Davila-Fernandez & Serena Sordi, 2025. "FX-constrained growth: Fundamentalists, chartists and the dynamic trade-multiplier," Papers 2508.02252, arXiv.org.
  2. Michel Beine & Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2014. "The Impact of FX Central Bank Intervention in a Noise Trading Framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 6, pages 189-216, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  3. Colucci, Domenico & Valori, Vincenzo, 2011. "Adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena: Does heterogeneity matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1307-1321, August.
  4. Christian R. Proaño, 2013. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stabilization In Small Open Economies Under Behavioral Fx Trading: Insights From Numerical Simulations," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(6), pages 992-1011, December.
  5. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2014. "Speculative behavior and the dynamics of interacting stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 262-288.
  6. Westerhoff, Frank H., 2004. "Multiasset Market Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(5), pages 596-616, November.
  7. De Grauwe, Paul & Markiewicz, Agnieszka, 2013. "Learning to forecast the exchange rate: Two competing approaches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 42-76.
  8. Frank Westerhoff & Martin Hohnisch, 2007. "A note on interactions-driven business cycles," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 2(1), pages 85-91, June.
  9. Weihong Huang & Huanhuan Zheng & Wai-Mun Chia, 2013. "Asymmetric returns, gradual bubbles and sudden crashes," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 420-437, May.
  10. Li, Xiao-Ping & Zhou, Chun-Yang & Tong, Bin, 2019. "Carry trades, agent heterogeneity and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 343-358.
  11. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Currency manipulation and currency wars: Analyzing the dynamics of competitive central bank interventions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
  12. Dick, Christian D. & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013. "Exchange rate expectations of chartists and fundamentalists," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1362-1383.
  13. Mignot, Sarah & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2023. "Explaining the stylized facts of foreign exchange markets with a simple agent-based version of Paul de Grauwe's chaotic exchange rate model," BERG Working Paper Series 189, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  14. Anufriev Mikhail & Bottazzi Giulio, 2012. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Investment Horizons," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-38, October.
  15. Efstathios Panayi & Gareth Peters, 2015. "Stochastic simulation framework for the Limit Order Book using liquidity motivated agents," Papers 1501.02447, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2015.
  16. Efstathios Panayi & Gareth W. Peters, 2015. "Stochastic simulation framework for the limit order book using liquidity-motivated agents," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-52.
  17. Lof, Matthijs, 2013. "Essays on Expectations and the Econometrics of Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 59064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Giovanni Campisi & Anastasiia Panchuk & Fabio Tramontana, 2024. "A discontinuous model of exchange rate dynamics with sentiment traders," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 337(3), pages 913-935, June.
  19. Kukacka, Jiri & Barunik, Jozef, 2017. "Estimation of financial agent-based models with simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 21-45.
  20. Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Financial crises and regime-dependent dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 445-461.
  21. Zhenxi Chen & Weihong Huang & Huanhuan Zheng, 2018. "Estimating heterogeneous agents behavior in a two-market financial system," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(3), pages 491-510, October.
  22. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
  23. Simone Berardi & Gabriele Tedeschi, 2016. "How banks’ strategies influence financial cycles: An approach to identifying micro behavior," Working Papers 2016/24, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  24. Brianzoni, Serena & Campisi, Giovanni, 2020. "Dynamical analysis of a financial market with fundamentalists, chartists, and imitators," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  25. Sushko, Iryna & Tramontana, Fabio, 2025. "Regular and chaotic dynamics in a 2D discontinuous financial market model with heterogeneous traders," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 386-399.
  26. Bowden, Mark P., 2012. "Information contagion within small worlds and changes in kurtosis and volatility in financial prices," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 553-566.
  27. Proaño, Christian R., 2011. "Exchange rate determination, macroeconomic dynamics and stability under heterogeneous behavioral FX expectations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 177-188, February.
  28. Domenico Colucci & Vincenzo Valori, 2009. "Heterogeneous adaptive expectations and cobweb phenomena," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2009-01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  29. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations in asset pricing: Empirical evidence from the S&P500," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 1-16.
  30. Franke, Reiner, 2009. "Applying the method of simulated moments to estimate a small agent-based asset pricing model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 804-815, December.
  31. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2018. "Can the interaction between a single long-term attractor and heterogeneous trading explain the exchange rate conundrum?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 313-323.
  33. Sarah Mignot & Frank Westerhoff, 2025. "Explaining the Stylized Facts of Foreign Exchange Markets with a Simple Agent-based Version of Paul de Grauwe’s Chaotic Exchange Rate Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(2), pages 845-876, February.
  34. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bao, Te & Tuinstra, Jan, 2016. "Microfoundations for switching behavior in heterogeneous agent models: An experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 74-99.
  35. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong & Huang, Weihong & Zheng, Huanhuan, 2012. "Estimating behavioural heterogeneity under regime switching," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 446-460.
  36. Ya-Chi Huang & Chueh-Yung Tsao, 2018. "Discovering Traders’ Heterogeneous Behavior in High-Frequency Financial Data," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 821-846, April.
  37. Westerhoff Frank H., 2008. "The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 195-227, April.
  38. Mark Bowden, 2015. "A model of information flows and confirmatory bias in financial markets," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 38(2), pages 197-215, October.
  39. Chen, Zhenxi, 2014. "Estimating heterogeneous agents behavior with different investment horizons in stock markets," FinMaP-Working Papers 5, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
  40. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2023. "Sentiment-driven business cycle dynamics: An elementary macroeconomic model with animal spirits," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 342-359.
  41. Willem F.C. Verschoor & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2013. "Do foreign exchange fund managers behave like heterogeneous agents?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 1125-1134, February.
  42. Leonardo Bargigli & Luca Riccetti & Alberto Russo & Mauro Gallegati, 2020. "Network calibration and metamodeling of a financial accelerator agent based model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(2), pages 413-440, April.
  43. Saskia ter Ellen & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2018. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Asset Price Dynamics: A Survey of Recent Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Fredj Jawadi (ed.), Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics, pages 53-79, Springer.
  44. Tramontana, Fabio & Westerhoff, Frank & Gardini, Laura, 2013. "The bull and bear market model of Huang and Day: Some extensions and new results," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2351-2370.
  45. Sarah Mignot & Frank Westerhoff, 2023. "Revisiting Paul de Grauwe’s Chaotic Exchange Rate Model: New Analytical Insights and Agent-Based Explorations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 155-169, February.
  46. Westerhoff, Frank, 2009. "A simple agent-based financial market model: Direct interactions and comparisons of trading profits," BERG Working Paper Series 61, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  47. Andreas Röthig, 2012. "Cross‐Speculation In Currency Futures Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 272-278, July.
  48. Qian Zhang & Kuo-Jui Wu & Ming-Lang Tseng, 2019. "Exploring Carry Trade and Exchange Rate toward Sustainable Financial Resources: An application of the Artificial Intelligence UKF Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-26, June.
  49. Demary, Markus, 2010. "Transaction taxes and traders with heterogeneous investment horizons in an agent-based financial market model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-44.
  50. Lof, Matthijs, 2012. "Heterogeneity in stock prices: A STAR model with multivariate transition function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1845-1854.
  51. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2011. "On the inherent instability of international financial markets: Natural nonlinear interactions between stock and foreign exchange markets," BERG Working Paper Series 79, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
  52. Christian R. Proano, 2009. "Heterogenous Behavioral Expectations, FX Fluctuations and Dynamic Stability in a Stylized Two-Country Macroeconomic Model," IMK Working Paper 03-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  53. repec:mbr:jmonec:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:89-115 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Tedeschi, Gabriele & Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Berardi, Simone, 2019. "An approach to identifying micro behavior: How banks’ strategies influence financial cycles," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 329-346.
  55. Franke, Reiner & Westerhoff, Frank, 2012. "Structural stochastic volatility in asset pricing dynamics: Estimation and model contest," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1193-1211.
  56. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2012. "Explaining dispersion in foreign exchange expectations: A heterogeneous agent approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 719-735.
  57. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  58. Sarmidi, Tamat, 2010. "Ringgit Malaysia Predictability: Do Currencies and Prediction Horizon Matters?," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 44, pages 51-60.
  59. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2018. "Can the interaction between a single long-term attractor and heterogeneous trading explain exchange rate behaviour? A nonlinear econometric investigation," MPRA Paper 83894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Saeed Rasekhi, 2011. "Fundamental Modeling Exchange Rate using Genetic Algorithm: A Case Study of European Countries," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(6), pages 352-359.
  61. Filippo Gusella & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2024. "Endogenous cycles in heterogeneous agent models: a state-space approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 739-782, December.
  62. Zhang, Qian & Li, Zeguang, 2021. "Time-varying risk attitude and the foreign exchange market behavior," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
  63. Zila, Eric & Kukacka, Jiri, 2023. "Moment set selection for the SMM using simple machine learning," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 366-391.
  64. Filippo Gusella & Giorgio Ricchiuti, 2022. "A State-Space Approach for Time-Series Prediction of an Heterogeneous Agent Model," Working Papers - Economics wp2022_20.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
  65. Markus Demary, 2011. "Transaction taxes, greed and risk aversion in an agent-based financial market model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, May.
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