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Bidirectional Relationship between Investor Sentiment and Excess Returns: New Evidence from the Wavelet Perspective

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  • Marczak, Martyna
  • Beissinger, Thomas

Abstract

We propose to use the wavelet concept of the phase angle to determine the lead-lag relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns that are related to the bubble component of stock prices. The wavelet phase angle allows for decoupling short- and long-run relations and is additionally capable of identifying time-varying comovement patterns. Based on the monthly S&P500 index and two alternative monthly US sentiment indicators we find that in the short run (until 3 months) sentiment is leading returns whereas for periods above 3 months the opposite can be observed. Moreover, the initially strong positive relationship becomes less pronounced with increasing time horizon, thereby indicating that the over- or undervaluation in the short run is gradually corrected in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Marczak, Martyna & Beissinger, Thomas, 2016. "Bidirectional Relationship between Investor Sentiment and Excess Returns: New Evidence from the Wavelet Perspective," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145836, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145836
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    Cited by:

    1. Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2018. "Does sentiment matter for stock returns? Evidence from Indian stock market using wavelet approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 32-39.
    2. Ngoc Bao Vuong, Yoshihisa Suzuki, 2020. "Does Fear has Stronger Impact than Confidence on Stock Returns?The Case of Asia-Pacific Developed Markets," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67, pages 157-175, July.
    3. Angeliki Skoura, 2019. "Detection of Lead-Lag Relationships Using Both Time Domain and Time-Frequency Domain; An Application to Wealth-To-Income Ratio," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-27, April.
    4. Ngoc Bao Vuong & Yoshihisa Suzuki, 2020. "Does Fear has Stronger Impact than Confidence on Stock Returns? The Case of Asia-Pacific Developed Markets," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(2), pages 157-175, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

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