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Bidirectional relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns: new evidence from the wavelet perspective

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  • Martyna Marczak
  • Thomas Beissinger

Abstract

We propose to use the wavelet concept of the phase angle to determine the lead–lag relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns that are related to the bubble component of stock prices. The wavelet phase angle allows for decoupling short- and long-run relations and is additionally capable of identifying time-varying comovement patterns. Based on the monthly S&P500 index and two alternative monthly US sentiment indicators, we find that in the short run (until 3 months), sentiment is leading returns whereas for periods above 3 months the opposite can be observed. Moreover, the initially strong positive relationship becomes less pronounced with increasing time horizon, thereby indicating that the over- or undervaluation in the short run is gradually corrected in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Martyna Marczak & Thomas Beissinger, 2016. "Bidirectional relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns: new evidence from the wavelet perspective," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(18), pages 1305-1311, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:23:y:2016:i:18:p:1305-1311
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1153782
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    Cited by:

    1. Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2018. "Does sentiment matter for stock returns? Evidence from Indian stock market using wavelet approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 32-39.
    2. M. Rahila Begam & Manivannan Babu & M. M. Sulphey, 2024. "Examining the Relationship Between Stock Returns and Investor Sentiments: The Moderating Effect of Weather Patterns," Vision, , vol. 28(4), pages 469-479, August.
    3. Ngoc Bao Vuong, Yoshihisa Suzuki, 2020. "Does Fear has Stronger Impact than Confidence on Stock Returns?The Case of Asia-Pacific Developed Markets," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67, pages 157-175, July.
    4. Angeliki Skoura, 2019. "Detection of Lead-Lag Relationships Using Both Time Domain and Time-Frequency Domain; An Application to Wealth-To-Income Ratio," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-27, April.
    5. Pham, Quyen & Pham, Huy & Pham, Tra & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2025. "Revisiting the role of investor sentiment in the stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    6. Ngoc Bao Vuong & Yoshihisa Suzuki, 2020. "Does Fear has Stronger Impact than Confidence on Stock Returns? The Case of Asia-Pacific Developed Markets," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(2), pages 157-175, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

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