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Exchange Rate and Price Dynamics at the Zero Lower Bound

  • Kaufmann, Daniel
  • Bäurle, Gregor

In this paper, we analyse nominal exchange rate and price dynamics after risk shocks with short-term interest rates constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). We show with a stylized theoretical model that temporary risk shocks may lead to permanent shifts of the exchange rate and the price level if a central bank anchors long-run inflation expectations. In line with this theoretical prediction, we find empirical evidence for Switzerland, that the responses of the exchange rate and the price level to a temporary risk shock are permanent. Our theoretical discussion shows that adopting a credible long-run price level target rather than a long-run inflation target avoids these permanent shifts of the exchange rate and the price level.

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Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 79872.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79872
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
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  1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 1998. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Working Papers 98-37, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 2756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Frank Schorfheide & Pablo Cuba-Borda & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2016. "Macroeconomic Dynamics Near the ZLB : A Tale of Two Countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 1163, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. An, Lian & Wang, Jian, 2011. "Exchange rate pass-through: evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 70, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  13. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2012. "The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models: Should Central Banks Raise Their Inflation Targets in Light of the Zero Lower Bound?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1371-1406.
  14. Marco Huwiler & Daniel Kaufmann, 2013. "Combining disaggregate forecasts for inflation: The SNB's ARIMA model," Economic Studies 2013-07, Swiss National Bank.
  15. Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "Real Implications of the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1152, Society for Computational Economics.
  16. Stefan Leist, 2013. "Driving Forces of the Swiss Output Gap," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(IV), pages 493-531, December.
  17. Burkhard, Lukas & Fischer, Andreas M., 2009. "Communicating policy options at the zero bound," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 742-754, September.
  18. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
  19. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
  20. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2009. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open economy model," Working Paper Series WP-09-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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