IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/svrwwp/022010.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The dark side of the generalized system of preferences

Author

Listed:
  • Herz, Bernhard
  • Wagner, Marco

Abstract

The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) was established to promote the exports of low-income countries to industrialized countries in order to support their economic growth and development. However, the design of these schemes is rather complex and the effects of GSP have been found to be controversial. While previous studies solely analyzed preferential agreements of individual granting countries separately, implying a one-sided perspective, we take a general view and investigate the overall and dynamic effects common to the various GSP schemes in order to provide generalized recommendations for economic policy. In our empirical analysis, based on an extensive dataset covering most of world trade, we find that GSP tends to foster developing countries' exports in the short-run, but hampers them in the long-run. Also, GSP granting countries are able to promote their own exports initially, while in the long-run their exports decrease. Economically advanced GSP recipients 1 are more likely to benefit from GSP than less advanced countries. Taken together, GSP does not seem to be a suitable instrument to promote sustainable economic growth and development of low-income countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Herz, Bernhard & Wagner, Marco, 2010. "The dark side of the generalized system of preferences," Working Papers 02/2010, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:022010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/74746/1/749369787.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    2. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    3. Hans P Lankes & Katerina Alexandraki, 2004. "The Impact of Preference Erosionon Middle-Income Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/169, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Bernhard Herz & Marco Wagner, 2007. "Do the World Trade Organization and the Generalized System of Preferences foster bilateral trade?," Working Papers 020, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    5. Michael Tomz & Judith L. Goldstein & Douglas Rivers, 2007. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 2005-2018, December.
    6. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dieter Schumacher, 2009. "Estimating gravity equations: to log or not to log?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 645-669, June.
    7. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2007. "The log of gravity revisited," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 64, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    9. Daniel J. Henderson & Daniel L. Millimet, 2008. "Is gravity linear?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 137-172.
    10. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
    11. Ozden, Caglar & Reinhardt, Eric, 2005. "The perversity of preferences: GSP and developing country trade policies, 1976-2000," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 1-21, October.
    12. Daniel Lederman & Çaglar Özden, 2007. "Geopolitical Interests And Preferential Access To U.S. Markets," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, July.
    13. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    14. Lars Nilsson, 2002. "Trading relations: is the roadmap from Lometo Cotonou correct?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 439-452.
    15. Joakim Westerlund & Fredrik Wilhelmsson, 2009. "Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 641-649.
    16. Grossman, Gene M, 1982. "Import Competition from Developed and Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 271-281, May.
    17. Grossman, Gene M. & Sykes, Alan O., 2005. "A preference for development: the law and economics of GSP," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(01), pages 41-67, March.
    18. Persson, Maria & Wilhelmsson, Fredrik, 2006. "Assessing the Effects of EU Trade Preferences for Developing Countries," Working Papers 2006:4, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Jun 2006.
    19. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, February.
    20. Debapriya Bhattacharya & Mustafizur Rahman, 2000. "Regional Cumulation Facility Under Ec-Gsp:Strategic Response From Short And Medium Term Perspectives," CPD Working Paper 9, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sharma, Anupa & Grant, Jason & Boys, Kathryn, 2015. "Truly Preferential Treatment? Reconsidering the Generalized System of (Trade) Preferences," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205890, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Xavier Cirera & Francesca Foliano & Michael Gasiorek, 2016. "The impact of preferences on developing countries’ exports to the European Union: bilateral gravity modelling at the product level," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 59-102, February.
    3. Соколовская Е.В., 2016. "Unilateral tariff cuts: a theory," Экономический вестник университета. Сборник научных трудов ученых и аспирантов, CyberLeninka;Государственное высшее учебное заведение «Переяслав-Хмельницкий государственный педагогический университет имени Григория Сковороды», issue 29-1, pages 268-274.
    4. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2014. "Do nonreciprocal preferential trade agreements increase beneficiaries' exports?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 291-304.
    5. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2016. "A Re-Examination of the Effect of GATT/WTO on Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 561-584, July.
    6. Mahmood, Talat, 2014. "Assessment of German-Pakistani relations in trade, investment and strategic cooperation," Discussion Papers, Presidential Department P 2014-004, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GATT; WTO; GSP; trade; gravity model; regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:022010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/svrgvde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.