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The log of gravity revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada
  • Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas
  • Vollmer, Sebastian

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of alternative estimation methods for multiplicative and log models with heteroskedasticity. Contrary to Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006), the results of a simulation study indicate that the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood estimator (PPML) is not always the best estimator. New estimates of the gravity equation are obtained for three different datasets with traditional methods (OLS and FGLS) and with the PPML. We find that the PPML assumption concerning the pattern of heteroskedasticity is, in most cases, rejected by the data and PPML estimates are outperformed by OLS and FGLS estimates in out-of-sample forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2007. "The log of gravity revisited," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 64, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:64
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
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    6. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    7. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_022, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Jan Möhlmann & Sjef Ederveen & Henri L.F. de Groot & Gert-Jan M. Linders, 2009. "Intangible Barriers to International Trade: A Sectoral Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-021/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Agostino, Mariarosaria & Trivieri, Francesco, 2014. "Geographical indication and wine exports. An empirical investigation considering the major European producers," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 22-36.
    4. Estrella Gómez-Herrera, 2013. "Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1087-1111, June.
    5. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2012. "Trade Costs and Economic Development," Economic Geography, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 88(2), pages 137-163, April.
    6. Aiello, Francesco & Demaria, Federica, 2009. "Do trade preferential agreements enhance the exports of developing countries? Evidence from the EU GSP," MPRA Paper 20093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Natalia Drzewoszewska, 2014. "Searching for the Appropriate Measure of Multilateral Trade-Resistance Terms in the Gravity Model of Bilateral Trade Flows," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 29-49.
    8. Minyu Zhou & Ian Sheldon & Jihyun Eum, 2018. "The role of intellectual property rights in seed technology transfer through trade: evidence from U.S. field crop seed exports," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(4), pages 423-434, July.
    9. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    10. Picci, Lucio, 2010. "The internationalization of inventive activity: A gravity model using patent data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1070-1081, October.
    11. Bernhard Herz & Marco Wagner, 2011. "The Dark Side of the Generalized System of Preferences," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 763-775, September.
    12. Richard Kneller & Mauro Pisu & Zhihong Yu, 2008. "Overseas business costs and firm export performance," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(2), pages 639-669, May.
    13. James P. LeSage & Manfred M. Fischer, 2016. "Spatial Regression-Based Model Specifications for Exogenous and Endogenous Spatial Interaction," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Roberto Patuelli & Giuseppe Arbia (ed.), Spatial Econometric Interaction Modelling, chapter 0, pages 15-36, Springer.
    14. Neil Foster, 2012. "Preferential Trade Agreements and the Margins of Imports," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 869-889, November.
    15. Martijn Burger & Frank van Oort & Gert-Jan Linders, 2009. "On the Specification of the Gravity Model of Trade: Zeros, Excess Zeros and Zero-inflated Estimation," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 167-190.
    16. Zongo, Amara, 2020. "The Impact of Restrictive Measures on Bilateral FDI in OECD Countries," MPRA Paper 101929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Zongo, Amara, 2020. "The Impact of Services Trade Restrictiveness on Food Trade," MPRA Paper 101658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Sophie Drogue & Jean-Philippe Gervais, 2010. "Guidelines and methodology to analyze the different case studies," Working Papers hal-02818030, HAL.
    19. Afolabi Luqman.O & Nor Aznin Abu Bakar & Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz, 2015. "Regionalism and ECOWAS Trade Performance: A Gravity Model Approach," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 29(2), pages 59-71.
    20. Geloso Grosso, Massimo & Shepherd, Ben, 2011. "Air cargo transport in APEC: Regulation and effects on merchandise trade," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 203-212, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    simulations; Poisson regression; constant-elasticity models; heteroskedasticity; feasible generalized least squares (FGLS); maximum likelihood;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water

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