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The log of gravity revisited

Author

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  • Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada
  • Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas
  • Vollmer, Sebastian

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of alternative estimation methods for multiplicative and log models with heteroskedasticity. Contrary to Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006), the results of a simulation study indicate that the Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood estimator (PPML) is not always the best estimator. New estimates of the gravity equation are obtained for three different datasets with traditional methods (OLS and FGLS) and with the PPML. We find that the PPML assumption concerning the pattern of heteroskedasticity is, in most cases, rejected by the data and PPML estimates are outperformed by OLS and FGLS estimates in out-of-sample forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2007. "The log of gravity revisited," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 64, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cegedp:64
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robinson, P M, 1987. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation in the Presence of Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 875-891, July.
    2. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    3. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    4. Delgado, Miguel A., 1992. "Computing nonparametric functional estimates in semiparametric problems," UC3M Working papers. Economics 5821, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    5. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    6. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_022, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    7. Stavins, Robert N & Jaffe, Adam B, 1990. "Unintended Impacts of Public Investments on Private Decisions: The Depletion of Forested Wetlands," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 337-352, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2011. "The Limits to Integration," Chapters,in: International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 9 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Picci, Lucio, 2010. "The internationalization of inventive activity: A gravity model using patent data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 1070-1081, October.
    3. Michele Fratianni & Francesco Marchionne, 2012. "Trade Costs and Economic Development," Economic Geography, Clark University, vol. 88(2), pages 137-163, April.
    4. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    5. Jan Möhlmann & Sjef Ederveen & Henri L.F. de Groot & Gert-Jan M. Linders, 2009. "Intangible Barriers to International Trade: A Sectoral Approach," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-021/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Aiello, Francesco & Demaria, Federica, 2009. "Do trade preferential agreements enhance the exports of developing countries? Evidence from the EU GSP," MPRA Paper 20093, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Neil Foster, 2012. "Preferential Trade Agreements and the Margins of Imports," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 869-889, November.
    8. Agostino, Mariarosaria & Trivieri, Francesco, 2014. "Geographical indication and wine exports. An empirical investigation considering the major European producers," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 22-36.
    9. Bernhard Herz & Marco Wagner, 2011. "The Dark Side of the Generalized System of Preferences," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 763-775, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    simulations; Poisson regression; constant-elasticity models; heteroskedasticity; feasible generalized least squares (FGLS); maximum likelihood;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q25 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Water

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