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Is academic-track schooling worthwhile without college? Decomposing monetary returns to education

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  • Krumme, Anna
  • Westphal, Matthias

Abstract

We estimate monetary wage returns to academic-track education, Germany's elite secondary school type granting university entrance. Because academic-track attendance and subsequent university education are institutionally linked, we disentangle their contributions using a causal mediation analysis. Leveraging quasi-experimental variation from the educational expansion - independent openings of schools and universities - we identify (i) the direct effect of academic-track education holding university attendance constant and (ii) the indirect effect operating through university education. We find total monetary returns of 118%, with about 60 percentage points attributable to the indirect effect of additional university education with prior academic-track schooling, and the remaining 40 points to academic-track education alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Krumme, Anna & Westphal, Matthias, 2026. "Is academic-track schooling worthwhile without college? Decomposing monetary returns to education," Ruhr Economic Papers 1197, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:335907
    DOI: 10.4419/96973382
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    JEL classification:

    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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