IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/kitiip/47.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimal evacuation-decisions facing the trade-off between early-warning precision, evacuation-cost and trust - the Warning Compliance Model (WCM)

Author

Listed:
  • Wiens, Marcus
  • Mahdavian, Farnaz
  • Platt, Stephen
  • Schultmann, Frank

Abstract

In this article, we analyze the phenomenon of flood evacuation compliance from a both decision-theoretic and game-theoretic perspective presenting the Warning Compliance Model (WCM). This discrete decision model incorporates a Bayesian information system, which formalizes the statistical effects of a warning forecast based on the harmonious structure of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The game-theoretical part of the model incorporates the evacuation order decision of a local government and people's compliance regarding their evacuation-decisions. The strengths of this novel approach lie in the joint consideration of probabilistic and communicative risk aspects of a dynamic setting, in the simultaneous consideration of escalation and de-escalation phases and of two differently exposed risk groups, which requires differential risk communication. For each scenario, we derive the explicit and generic solution of the model, which makes it possible to identify the scope for warning compliance and its effects independent from the parameter constellation. Applying empirical data from flood and risk studies yields plausible results for the escalation-scenario of the model and reveal the limits of compliance if people face a Black Swan flood event.

Suggested Citation

  • Wiens, Marcus & Mahdavian, Farnaz & Platt, Stephen & Schultmann, Frank, 2020. "Optimal evacuation-decisions facing the trade-off between early-warning precision, evacuation-cost and trust - the Warning Compliance Model (WCM)," Working Paper Series in Production and Energy 47, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute for Industrial Production (IIP).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kitiip:47
    DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000125578
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/225983/1/1738027317.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5445/IR/1000125578?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Haixi, 2012. "An Optimal Design of Early Warning Systems: A Bayesian Quickest Change Detection Approach," MPRA Paper 37302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jungbu Kim & Seong Soo Oh, 2015. "Confidence, knowledge, and compliance with emergency evacuation," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 111-126, January.
    3. John C. Whitehead & Bob Edwards & Marieke Van Willigen & John R. Maiolo & Kenneth Wilson & Kevin T. Smith, 2000. "“Heading for Higher Ground: Factors Affecting Real and Hypothetical Hurricane Evacuation Behavior,”," Working Papers 0006, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    4. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. "The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
    5. repec:reg:rpubli:282 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. L. Cropper, Maureen & Sahin, Sebnem, 2009. "Valuing mortality and morbidity in the context of disaster risks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4832, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shihomi Ara & Cem Tekeşin, 2017. "The Monetary Valuation of Lifetime Health Improvement and Life Expectancy Gains in Turkey," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-27, September.
    2. E. Michel‐Kerjan & S. Hochrainer‐Stigler & H. Kunreuther & J. Linnerooth‐Bayer & R. Mechler & R. Muir‐Wood & N. Ranger & P. Vaziri & M. Young, 2013. "Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 984-999, June.
    3. Kenny, Charles, 2009. "Why do people die in earthquakes ? the costs, benefits and institutions of disaster risk reduction in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4823, The World Bank.
    4. Parry, Ian & Strand, Jon, 2012. "International fuel tax assessment: an application to Chile," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 127-144, April.
    5. Marcel Favereau & Luis F. Robledo & María T. Bull, 2020. "Homeostatic representation for risk decision making: a novel multi-method simulation approach for evacuation under volcanic eruption," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 29-56, August.
    6. Schaffner, Sandra & Spengler, Hannes, 2005. "Der Einfluss unbeobachteter Heterogenität auf kompensatorische Lohndifferentiale und den Wert eines Statistischen Lebens: Eine mikroökonometrische Parallelanalyse mit IABS und SOEP," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 36800, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    7. French, Michael T. & Gumus, Gulcin & Homer, Jenny F., 2009. "Public policies and motorcycle safety," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 831-838, July.
    8. Gopal K. Basak & Chandramauli Chakraborty & Pranab Kumar Das, 2021. "Optimal Lockdown Strategy in a Pandemic: An Exploratory Analysis for Covid-19," Papers 2109.02512, arXiv.org.
    9. Aaron Sojourner, "undated". "Partial identification of willingness-to-pay using shape restrictions with an application to the value of a statistical life," Working Papers 0110, Human Resources and Labor Studies, University of Minnesota (Twin Cities Campus).
    10. Devi, P. Indira & Shanmugam, K.R. & Jayasree, M.G., 2012. "Compensating Wages for Occupational Risks of Farm Workers in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 67(2), pages 1-12.
    11. Thomas Kniesner & W. Viscusi & James Ziliak, 2014. "Willingness to accept equals willingness to pay for labor market estimates of the value of a statistical life," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 187-205, June.
    12. Lakdawalla, Darius N. & Seabury, Seth A., 2012. "The welfare effects of medical malpractice liability," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 356-369.
    13. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen A. Kopecky, 2022. "The Downward Spiral," NBER Working Papers 29764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Yang Guo & Liqun Peng & Jinping Tian & Denise L. Mauzerall, 2023. "Deploying green hydrogen to decarbonize China’s coal chemical sector," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    15. Alexander Gelber & Adam Isen & Judd B. Kessler, 2014. "The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Summer Youth Employment Program Lotteries," NBER Working Papers 20810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Christopher S. Carpenter & Mark Stehr, 2011. "Intended and Unintended Consequences of Youth Bicycle Helmet Laws," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 305-324.
    17. Stavins, Robert, 2004. "Environmental Economics," RFF Working Paper Series dp-04-54, Resources for the Future.
    18. Philip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig & Adam Samaha, 2010. "Gun Control after "Heller": Litigating against Regulation," NBER Chapters, in: Regulation vs. Litigation: Perspectives from Economics and Law, pages 103-135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Joseph Michael Newhard, 2018. "The effect of equalizing differences on tax-price: explaining patterns of political support across industries," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 281-302, September.
    20. Laura A. Bakkensen & Robert O. Mendelsohn, 2016. "Risk and Adaptation: Evidence from Global Hurricane Damages and Fatalities," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 555-587.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:kitiip:47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.iip.kit.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.