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Biden's economic agenda risks mid-term elections: An analysis of Biden's economic agenda and its effects on the American economy

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  • Kunath, Gero
  • Matthes, Jürgen
  • Obst, Thomas

Abstract

President Joe Biden faces some political and economic headwinds in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections this year. Current economic challenges include historically high inflation rates and signs of an impending recession. [...] This paper gives a critical overview of the political and economic environment the Democratic party is facing in the November 8 midterm elections. We analyze the economic effects of Bidenomics and quantify the effects of the vast fiscal programs on the U.S. economy discussing the issue of inflationary pressures of the expansionary fiscal policy programs. The analysis shows that while the American Rescue Plan has substantially increased aggregate demand in the U.S. economy and stimulated export demand for countries like Germany it has likely added to the current issue of high inflation rates, e.g., caused by core inflation items rather than exogenous energy shocks as in Europe. However, while programs such as the Inflation Reduction Act do not add further substantial stimulus on an annual basis all these programs contain a transformative element that possibly makes it attractive for U.S. companies to invest in new technologies, infrastructure, and green energy networks. This improves the capital stock, making positive longer-term positive effects on potential output more likely.

Suggested Citation

  • Kunath, Gero & Matthes, Jürgen & Obst, Thomas, 2022. "Biden's economic agenda risks mid-term elections: An analysis of Biden's economic agenda and its effects on the American economy," IW-Reports 59/2022, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:592022
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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