IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/diedps/242016.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Directing structural change: from tools to policy

Author

Listed:
  • Altenburg, Tilman
  • Kleinz, Maria
  • Lütkenhorst, Wilfried

Abstract

Structural change towards diversification and competitiveness is important to make our economies productive, wealthy and sustainable. In market economies, structural change is essentially driven by private entrepreneurs who challenge incumbents with new business ideas and take risks to implement them. While public policy cannot fully anticipate the outcomes of such market-driven search processes, it does have important roles in directing structural change: it can facilitate stakeholder processes meant to overcome coordination and information failure and thereby smooth the transformation; it can make pre-competitive investments in infrastructure and skills for the future; and it can help align structural change with broader societal objectives, such as environmental sustainability or job creation. To fulfil these roles, policymakers need to have an idea about future competitive patterns of specialisation. The challenge is to anticipate trends and facilitate action towards promising futures in ways that are as evidence-based as possible and effectively synchronised with market forces. Our paper makes three essential contributions to addressing this challenge: (1) We identify five influential methodologies for anticipating future competitive advantages, analyse their strengths and weaknesses, and suggest ways to consolidate their most valu¬able features in one synthetic approach. (2) In doing so, we emphasise the importance of disruptive change, stemming in particular from decarbonisation as well as the digitali¬sation of economic processes and products. Such game changers are likely to affect virtually all economic sectors, thereby reducing the predictive power of methodologies that essentially extrapolate from the past. (3) We highlight the need to contextualise the various analytical tools, and caution against using them as technocratic blueprints. To be of practical use, evidence-based assessments of future competitive advantages need to be embedded into a political economy framework that takes account of both societal objectives (normative level) and implementation capabilities (institutional level).

Suggested Citation

  • Altenburg, Tilman & Kleinz, Maria & Lütkenhorst, Wilfried, 2016. "Directing structural change: from tools to policy," IDOS Discussion Papers 24/2016, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:diedps:242016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/199487/1/die-dp-2016-24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefan Ambec & Mark A. Cohen & Stewart Elgie & Paul Lanoie, 2013. "The Porter Hypothesis at 20: Can Environmental Regulation Enhance Innovation and Competitiveness?," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(1), pages 2-22, January.
    2. Jean-Jacques Laffont & Jean Tirole, 1991. "The Politics of Government Decision-Making: A Theory of Regulatory Capture," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1089-1127.
    3. Ju, Jiandong & Lin, Justin Yifu & Wang, Yong, 2015. "Endowment structures, industrial dynamics, and economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 244-263.
    4. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Syrquin, Moshe, 2010. "Kuznets and Pasinetti on the study of structural transformation: Never the Twain shall meet?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 248-257, November.
    6. Humphrey, John,, 2004. "Upgrading in global value chains," ILO Working Papers 993698523402676, International Labour Organization.
    7. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    8. repec:bla:devpol:v:27:y:2009:i:5:p:483-502 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
    10. John Humphrey & Hubert Schmitz, 2004. "Governance in global value chains," Chapters, in: Hubert Schmitz (ed.), Local Enterprises in the Global Economy, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Bahar, Dany & Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar A., 2014. "Neighbors and the evolution of the comparative advantage of nations: Evidence of international knowledge diffusion?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 111-123.
    12. Karp, Larry S. & Stevenson, Megan, 2012. "Green industrial policy: trade and theory," CUDARE Working Papers 123637, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    13. Justin Yifu Lin, 2012. "The Quest for Prosperity: How Developing Economies Can Take Off," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9812.
    14. De Backer, Koen & Miroudot, Sébastien, 2014. "Mapping global value chains," Libros de la CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 37176, May.
    15. Justin Yifu Lin, 2012. "New Structural Economics : A Framework for Rethinking Development and Policy," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2232.
    16. Piergiuseppe Fortunato & Carlos Razo & Kasper Vrolijk, 2015. "Operationalizing the Product Space: A Road Map to Export Diversification," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 219, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    17. Gereffi, Gary & Luo, Xubei, 2014. "Risks and opportunities of participation in global value chains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6847, The World Bank.
    18. Szirmai, Adam & Naude, Wim & Alcorta, Ludovico (ed.), 2013. "Pathways to Industrialization in the Twenty-First Century: New Challenges and Emerging Paradigms," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199667857.
    19. Baldwin, Richard, 2012. "Global supply chains: Why they emerged, why they matter, and where they are going," CEPR Discussion Papers 9103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Ströh de Martínez, Christiane & Feddersen, Marietta & Speicher, Anna, 2016. "Food security in sub-Saharan Africa: a fresh look on agricultural mechanisation. How adapted financial solutions can make a difference," IDOS Studies, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS), volume 91, number 91, July.
    21. Sébastien Miroudot & Rainer Lanz & Alexandros Ragoussis, 2009. "Trade in Intermediate Goods and Services," OECD Trade Policy Papers 93, OECD Publishing.
    22. C. A. Hidalgo & B. Klinger & A. -L. Barabasi & R. Hausmann, 2007. "The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations," Papers 0708.2090, arXiv.org.
    23. Anna, Petrenko, 2016. "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(1), March.
    24. Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2006. "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space," Working Paper Series rwp06-041, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    25. Cimoli, Mario & Dosi, Giovanni & Stiglitz, Joseph E. (ed.), 2009. "Industrial Policy and Development: The Political Economy of Capabilities Accumulation," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199235278.
    26. Lee,Keun, 2013. "Schumpeterian Analysis of Economic Catch-up," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107042681, October.
    27. Pegels, Anna, 2016. "Taxing carbon as an instrument of green industrial policy in developing countries," IDOS Discussion Papers 23/2016, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    28. Lütkenhorst, Wilfried & Vidican, Georgeta & Altenburg, Tilman & Pegels, Anna, 2014. "Green industrial policy: managing transformation under uncertainty," IDOS Discussion Papers 28/2014, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lütkenhorst, Wilfried, 2018. "Creating wealth without labour? Emerging contours of a new techno-economic landscape," IDOS Discussion Papers 11/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    2. Hahn, Tina & Auktor, Georgeta Vidican, 2018. "Industrial policy in Morocco and its potential contribution to a new social contract," IDOS Discussion Papers 31/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    3. S. V. Zhukov & I. A. Kopytin & A. O. Maslennikov & M. V. Sinitsyn, 2023. "Oil Exporting Countries: Analysis of Economic Growth Opportunities Through Export Diversification in a Low-Carbon World," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 573-582, October.
    4. El-Haddad, Amirah, 2018. "Exporting for growth: identifying leading sectors for Egypt and Tunisia using the Product Space Methodology," IDOS Discussion Papers 25/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    5. Rim Ben Ayed Mouelhi & Monia Ghazali, 2021. "Structural transformation in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia: Patterns, drivers and constraints," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(1), pages 35-61, January.
    6. Janus, Heiner & Holzapfel, Sarah, 2016. "Results-based approaches in agriculture: what is the potential?," IDOS Discussion Papers 25/2016, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    7. Ketels Christian, 2017. "Working Paper 258 - Structural Transformation: A competitiveness-based view," Working Paper Series 2369, African Development Bank.
    8. El-Haddad Amirah, 2020. "Picking Winners: Identifying Leading Sectors for Egypt and Tunisia Using the Product Space Methodology," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-80, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lütkenhorst, Wilfried, 2018. "Creating wealth without labour? Emerging contours of a new techno-economic landscape," IDOS Discussion Papers 11/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    2. Dosi, Giovanni & Roventini, Andrea & Russo, Emanuele, 2019. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 101-129.
    3. Maria Savona, 2021. "Revisiting High Development Theory to Explain Upgrading Prospects in Business Services Global Value Chains," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 33(2), pages 206-226, April.
    4. Tilman Altenburg & Wilfried Lütkenhorst, 2015. "Industrial Policy in Developing Countries," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14726.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/46k9rkvut99i7qnn4vqm25t53b is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/46k9rkvut99i7qnn4vqm25t53b is not listed on IDEAS
    7. El-Haddad, Amirah, 2018. "Exporting for growth: identifying leading sectors for Egypt and Tunisia using the Product Space Methodology," IDOS Discussion Papers 25/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    8. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up," Working Papers hal-03242369, HAL.
    9. Eren Can Gurbuz & Ismail Tuncer, 2023. "Latent Comparative Advantages of the Turkish Economy: Evidence from the GIFF Application," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 51(2), pages 169-188, September.
    10. Padmashree Gehl Sampath & Bertha Vallejo, 2018. "Trade, Global Value Chains and Upgrading: What, When and How?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(3), pages 481-504, July.
    11. Ulrich Schetter & Dario Diodato & Eric Protzer & Frank Neffke & Ricardo Hausmann, 2024. "From Products to Capabilities: Constructing a Genotypic Product Space," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2419, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Jun 2024.
    12. Mealy, Penny & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2022. "Economic complexity and the green economy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    13. Wonsub Eum & Jeong‐Dong Lee, 2022. "Alternative paths of diversification for developing countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2336-2355, November.
    14. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3s3jn8tt5h9mab7fo128gecbhj is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Hausmann, Ricardo & Stock, Daniel P. & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2022. "Implied comparative advantage," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    16. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Public policies and the art of catching up: matching the historical evidence with a multicountry agent-based model [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(4), pages 1011-1036.
    17. Benno Ferrarini & Pasquale Scaramozzino, 2015. "The Product Space Revisited: China's Trade Profile," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(9), pages 1368-1386, September.
    18. Bahar, Dany & Rosenow, Samuel & Stein, Ernesto & Wagner, Rodrigo, 2019. "Export take-offs and acceleration: Unpacking cross-sector linkages in the evolution of comparative advantage," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 48-60.
    19. Mealy, Penny & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2017. "Economic Complexity and the Green Economy," INET Oxford Working Papers 2018-03, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, revised Feb 2019.
    20. Hartmann, Dominik & Bezerra, Mayra & Lodolo, Beatrice & Pinheiro, Flávio L., 2019. "International trade, development traps, and the core-periphery structure of income inequality," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 01-2019, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    21. Wouter G. Bam & Karolien Bruyne & Mare Laing, 2021. "The IO–PS in the context of GVC-related policymaking: The case of the South African automotive industry," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(3), pages 410-432, September.
    22. Melia, Elvis, 2020. "African jobs in the digital era: Export options with a focus on online labour," IDOS Discussion Papers 3/2020, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    23. Han, Junhee & Lee, Keun, 2022. "Heterogeneous technology and specialization for economic growth beyond the middle-income stage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:diedps:242016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ditubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.