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Money Velocity with Interest Rate Stochastic Volatility and Exact Aggregation

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  • William A. Barnett

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

  • Haiyang Xu

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

Abstract

The determinants of money velocity are explored under various assumptions on interest rate uncertainty in a monetary general equilibrium model. It is found that the appearance of velocity function instability can be produced by overlooking interest rate stochastic volatility. In addition, when interest rates are subject to stochastic volatility, velocity is found to follow a nonlinear stochastic process. We conclude that the variances of interest rate stochastic processes are omitted variables in many studies of velocity function behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • William A. Barnett & Haiyang Xu, 1998. "Money Velocity with Interest Rate Stochastic Volatility and Exact Aggregation," Macroeconomics 9803004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9803004
    Note: Type of Document - Microsoft Word; prepared on IBM PC; pages: 22 ; figures: 2 Excel Figures Included. A revised version of this paper, with the modified title, "Stochastic Volatility in Interest Rates and Nonlinearity in Velocity," is forthcoming in a special edition of the International Journal of Systems Science
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William A. Barnett & Douglas Fisher & Apostolos Serletis, 2006. "Consumer Theory and the Demand for Money," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Money And The Economy, chapter 1, pages 3-43, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tinsley, P. A., 1980. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-142, February.
    3. Labadie, Pamela, 1989. "Stochastic inflation and the equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 277-298, September.
    4. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
    5. Hall, Thomas E & Noble, Nicholas R, 1987. "Velocity and the Variability of Money Growth: Evidence from Granger-Causality Tests: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 112-116, February.
    6. James B. Bullard, 1994. "Measures of money and the quantity theory," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 19-30.
    7. Fisher, Douglas & Serletis, Apostolos, 1989. "Velocity and the growth of money in the United States, 1970-1985," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 323-332.
    8. Giovannini, Alberto & Labadie, Pamela, 1991. "Asset Prices and Interest Rates in Cash-in-Advance Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1215-1251, December.
    9. Belongia, Michael T, 1996. "Measurement Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(5), pages 1065-1083, October.
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    12. Barnett, William A., 1978. "The user cost of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 145-149.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    velocity volatility nonlinearity risk;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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