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The effects of stochastic inflation on asset prices

  • Pamela A. Labadie

Stochastic inflation affects the risk characteristics, measured by the equity premium and the correlation of the equity’s return with consumption, in a fundamental way. The riskiness of a dollar-denominated asset depends on two conditional covariances: the covariance of the marginal rate of substitution (MRS) with the equity price and the covariance of the MRS with the rate of appreciation in the purchasing power of money. The second covariance may take either sign which becomes significant when the risk characteristics of the dollar-denominated asset are compared with the risk characteristics of an indexed asset constructed in a real version of the model. ; The effects of stochastic inflation on the assets’ risk characteristics are studied in a parameterized version of a cash-in-advance asset- pricing model. The growth rates of the endowment and monetary transfer evolve according to a VAR. The equity price is a geometric distributed lead of log–normally distributed random variables; an algorithm to express the price as an explicit function of the state variables is described.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics with number 5.

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Date of creation: 1988
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:5
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  1. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September.
  2. Grossman, Sanford J & Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 222-27, May.
  3. Campbell, John Y, 1986. "Bond and Stock Returns in a Simple Exchange Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 785-803, November.
  4. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
  5. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  7. Labadie, Pamela, 1989. "Stochastic inflation and the equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 277-298, September.
  8. David K. Backus & Allan W. Gregory & Stanley E. Zin, 1986. "Risk Premiums in the Term Structure : Evidence from Artificial Economies," Working Papers 665, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  9. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1984. "Nominal Prices and Interest Rates in General Equilibrium: Endowment Shocks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 197-213, April.
  10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  11. Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Money and Asset Prices in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 919-44, October.
  12. LeRoy, Stephen F, 1984. "Nominal Prices and Interest Rates in General Equilibrium: Money Shocks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 177-95, April.
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