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Inflation Targeting in an Emerging Market: the Case of Korea

  • Michael S. Hanson

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University)

  • Kwanghee Nam

    ()

    (School of Economics, Kookmin University, Jeongneung-dong)

To evaluate the effectiveness of targeting monetary policy strategies in a small open economy, we develop a dynamic optimizing model calibrated to recent Korean data. We then explore the consequences of alternative specifications of the loss function for society and the central bank, with particular focus on exchange rate volatility. Policy simulations include variations on inflation targeting, nominal income growth targeting and exchange rate targeting. Our results indicate that inflation targeting remains the most preferred policy regime, even when an explicit motive for exchange rate smoothing is introduced. In this case, the optimal inflation targeting and nominal income growth targeting policies are characterized by a “conservative” central bank that places greater weight on both the primary target variable and on the exchange rate than in society’s objective function. However, the optimal policy reacts to changes in degree of exchange rate pass-though in a non-linear fashion, complicating the robustness of inflation targeting recommendations for emerging markets.

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Paper provided by Wesleyan University, Department of Economics in its series Wesleyan Economics Working Papers with number 2005-007.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wes:weswpa:2005-007
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  1. Laurence Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2003. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Working Papers 9577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Amato, Jeffery D. & Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Inflation targeting in emerging market and transition economies: Lessons after a decade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 781-790, May.
  4. Bennett T McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2001. "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimising Agents and Sticky Prices," Discussion Papers 05, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  5. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 76, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. McCallum, B.T. & Nelson, E., 1998. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," Papers 644, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  7. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  8. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
  10. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 1998. "Performance of operational policy rules in an estimated semi-classical structural model," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  11. Tommaso Monacelli, 2003. "Monetary Policy in a Low Pass-Through Environment," Working Papers 228, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  12. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 928-956, September.
  14. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Edwin M. Truman, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 346, January.
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